150 Pestana #37 · Manteca, CA 95336

$49,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 19 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $50k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Darling single wide in desirable Almond Blossom park with clubhouse, new gym, pickleball court, pool and wonderful community. This home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, large living room, kitchen with gas stove and lots of cabinets for storage. Great added space for storage or relaxing. back location and priced to sell!

Key facts

• Pickleball court
• Clubhouse
• Almond blossom park

Tags

• ALMOND BLOSSOM PARK
• CLUBHOUSE
• NEW GYM
• PICKLEBALL COURT
• POOL
• GAS STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount field present)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220-volt electric in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (single wide); Built in 1971; Make: Newport
• Construction: Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Ceramic counter
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Electric fireplace; Carpet and laminate flooring; Ceramic countertops in kitchen; Living room with additional features; Dining space integrated in kitchen; Pets allowed with number and size limits
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area with 220-volt hookup; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 41.7% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,265 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 126.38%
• DSCR: 6.62
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $49,680
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
150 Pestana #80	0.01mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	8mo	$29,000	$40	93
150 Pestana Ave #67	0.08mi	2/1.0	696 (-3%)	5mo	$48,000	$69	86
1830 E Yosemite Ave #89	0.29mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	10mo	$38,000	$53	78
1830 E Yosemite Ave #72	0.29mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	12mo	$70,000	$97	76
150 Pestana Ave #12	0.09mi	2/2.0	792 (+10%)	17mo	$79,500	$100	61
1830 E Yosemite Ave #7	0.29mi	1/1.0 (-1)	638 (-11%)	4mo	$40,000	$63	59
1830 E Yosemite Ave #213	0.29mi	1/1.0 (-1)	768 (+7%)	18mo	$70,000	$91	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.65×
• Total profit: $77,507
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.70×
• Total profit: $160,564
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95336

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,258 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $1,445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,479	-5% $1,462	+0% $1,445	+5% $1,428	+10% $1,411
Rent	-10% $1,267	-5% $1,356	+0% $1,445	+5% $1,534	+10% $1,623
Rate	-1.0pp $1,470	-0.5pp $1,457	base $1,445	+0.5pp $1,432	+1.0pp $1,419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Pestana Ave Apt Home Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	44d	1	0.03mi
1224 Schirra Ct Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	528	$1,750	$3.31	21d	1	0.64mi
794 Button Ave Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,900	$3.04	3d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 317-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $49,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,167
• − Management: −$2,167
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $17,607
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,226
• After-tax cash flow: $13,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Manteca

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #17877

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manteca, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 98,916
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,185
• Household income: $89,172
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 876.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 42% Two or more races 18% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -407.05%
• Current HPI: 268.5708
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B