4253 Cedarwood St · Jan Phyl Village, FL 33880

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1982 3,681 sqft lot $163/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is in great condition. Newer vinyl windows, vinyl siding, and upgraded shower in main bathroom are just a few of the features. There is the bonus room on the front of the home, perfect for watching the world go by. In addition there is a nice side screened in porch. Oakwood Estates offers many activities and amenities. If you want a work out, you can swim in one of the 2 pools, or play tennis. Shuffleboard and bocci ball and horseshoes are also available. Wednesday morning is Koffee Klatch time. Then there are ice cream socials twice a month. There's a lot to do even with Covid and social distancing. Call today for your appointment to see this lovely home.

Key facts

• New vanity
• Bonus room
• Walk in closets

Tags

• WALK IN CLOSETS
• NEW VANITY
• LANAI
• BONUS ROOM
• NEWER REFRIGERATOR
• NEWER WASHER AND DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Homestead exempt
• Financial info: Total annual fees: $1,957.32
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $163.11; HOA includes trash and water; Community clubhouse; Gated community; Community laundry; Pool; Shuffleboard court; Tennis courts; Buyer approval required; Golf carts permitted; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; South-facing
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as manufactured home
• Exterior features: Awnings; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Fishing pier (community water extra)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area (Other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#769 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.38%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $10,276
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $40,822
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,535 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $771/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $997

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
449 Red Hawk Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,581	$1.43	3d	1	0.81mi
3320 Timberline Rd W Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,735	$1.32	3d	1	0.91mi
3039 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,175	$1.36	3d	1	0.94mi
3074 St Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	860	$1,149	$1.34	14d	1	0.96mi
3060 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	762	$1,373	$1.80	23d	1	1.00mi
3062 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,323	$1.20	3d	1	1.00mi
267 Lake Thomas Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,800	$1.74	23d	1	1.08mi
1059 Spirit Lake Rd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,378	$1.53	23d	1	1.12mi
108 Brad Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,720	$1.30	23d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    listed $99,000 Active
16. 2021-03-11
    soldstatus $69,000 Sold 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This home is in great condition. Newer vinyl windows, vinyl siding, and upgraded shower in main bathroom are just a few of the features. There is the bonus room on the front of the home, perfect for watching the world go by. In addition there is a nice side screened in porch. Oakwood Estates offers many activities and amenities. If you want a work out, you can swim in one of the 2 pools, or play tennis. Shuffleboard and bocci ball and horseshoes are also available. Wednesday morning is Koffee Klatch time. Then there are ice cream socials twice a month. There's a lot to do even with Covid and social distancing. Call today for your appointment to see this lovely home.

17. 2021-02-08
    status Pending 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This home is in great condition. Newer vinyl windows, vinyl siding, and upgraded shower in main bathroom are just a few of the features. There is the bonus room on the front of the home, perfect for watching the world go by. In addition there is a nice side screened in porch. Oakwood Estates offers many activities and amenities. If you want a work out, you can swim in one of the 2 pools, or play tennis. Shuffleboard and bocci ball and horseshoes are also available. Wednesday morning is Koffee Klatch time. Then there are ice cream socials twice a month. There's a lot to do even with Covid and social distancing. Call today for your appointment to see this lovely home.

18. 2021-02-06
    price $73,500 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This home is in great condition. Newer vinyl windows, vinyl siding, and upgraded shower in main bathroom are just a few of the features. There is the bonus room on the front of the home, perfect for watching the world go by. In addition there is a nice side screened in porch. Oakwood Estates offers many activities and amenities. If you want a work out, you can swim in one of the 2 pools, or play tennis. Shuffleboard and bocci ball and horseshoes are also available. Wednesday morning is Koffee Klatch time. Then there are ice cream socials twice a month. There's a lot to do even with Covid and social distancing. Call today for your appointment to see this lovely home.

19. 2020-12-11
    listed $76,000 Active 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This home is in great condition. Newer vinyl windows, vinyl siding, and upgraded shower in main bathroom are just a few of the features. There is the bonus room on the front of the home, perfect for watching the world go by. In addition there is a nice side screened in porch. Oakwood Estates offers many activities and amenities. If you want a work out, you can swim in one of the 2 pools, or play tennis. Shuffleboard and bocci ball and horseshoes are also available. Wednesday morning is Koffee Klatch time. Then there are ice cream socials twice a month. There's a lot to do even with Covid and social distancing. Call today for your appointment to see this lovely home.

20. 2018-04-27
    soldstatus $66,000 Sold 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Pack your bags and you can be home here. This immaculate home comes mostly furnished. Everything you see in the home will stay!! This home has everything you need for full time living in Florida or if you are a snowbird. The community offers 2 heated pools, 2 clubhouses, bocci ball, tennis courts, shuffleboard and miniature golf. In addition to these amenities, there are activities offered all year long. Call today to schedule an appointment to see this lovely home!!

21. 2018-04-16
    status Pending 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Pack your bags and you can be home here. This immaculate home comes mostly furnished. Everything you see in the home will stay!! This home has everything you need for full time living in Florida or if you are a snowbird. The community offers 2 heated pools, 2 clubhouses, bocci ball, tennis courts, shuffleboard and miniature golf. In addition to these amenities, there are activities offered all year long. Call today to schedule an appointment to see this lovely home!!

22. 2018-02-16
    listed $69,000 Active 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Pack your bags and you can be home here. This immaculate home comes mostly furnished. Everything you see in the home will stay!! This home has everything you need for full time living in Florida or if you are a snowbird. The community offers 2 heated pools, 2 clubhouses, bocci ball, tennis courts, shuffleboard and miniature golf. In addition to these amenities, there are activities offered all year long. Call today to schedule an appointment to see this lovely home!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $771 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$50/yr (+$4/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$771
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $3,821
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$917
• After-tax cash flow: $4,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jan Phyl Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #17294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+43.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-11 Sold (MLS) $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-06 Price Changed $73,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-11 Listed $76,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-27 Sold (MLS) $66,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-16 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $771 · -46.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.