38961 Stapley Cir · Zephyrhills, FL 33540

$78,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1972 5,800 sqft lot Est $79k · at est. $35/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordability is on all of our minds, and this home is perfect to call your new home. This is close to all the restaurants, shopping, and medical resources in the area. This 2 bedroom 1 bath is in solid condition. It is part of an HOA, but a very low annual fee. There is a carport for parking out of the elements. Schedule an appointment today!!

Key facts

• Close to restaurants
• Carport for parking
• Close to shopping

Tags

• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO MEDICAL RESOURCES
• CARPORT FOR PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $425; $35.42 monthly); Association approval not required; Pets allowed; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces north; Entry level: One
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $78k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,320 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.36%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38988 Stapley Cir	0.08mi	2/1.5	672 (-7%)	5mo	$50,000	$74	79
38533 Ethel Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	1mo	$69,900	$97	76
39136 Flora Ave	0.61mi	2/2.0	720 (0%)	2mo	$66,500	$92	70
38721 Granger Ln	0.49mi	2/2.0	736 (+2%)	11mo	$145,000	$197	64
39239 Longview Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	756 (+5%)	1mo	$127,000	$168	58
39053 Flora Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0	768 (+7%)	1mo	$142,500	$186	58
39045 Sabal Ave	0.52mi	2/1.5	744 (+3%)	14mo	$85,000	$114	56
38641 Lansing Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	2mo	$50,000	$74	53
39253 Longview Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0	684 (-5%)	13mo	$70,000	$102	52
6423 Ohio St	0.72mi	2/1.5	684 (-5%)	7mo	$75,000	$110	50
38825 Inez Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0	616 (-14%)	15mo	$145,000	$235	48
38541 Windflower Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0	825 (+15%)	4mo	$65,000	$79	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $5,184
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $27,523
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33540

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,048 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $859/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $694

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38706 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	445	$974	$2.19	16d	2	0.23mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	4d	1	0.78mi
39029 Kirkland Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$950	$1.90	24d	1	0.78mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	24d	1	0.83mi
8129 Cass Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,100	$2.04	24d	1	1.04mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	24d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $78,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $78,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-03-30
    listed $78,000 Active
15. 2024-01-22
    soldstatus $45,000
16. 2010-09-20
    listed $21,500
17. 2009-06-09
    listed $25,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $859 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $859 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$859
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,006
• − Management: −$1,006
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $2,253
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$541
• After-tax cash flow: $2,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 48,266
• Population (ZIP): 11,098

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.57%
• Current HPI: 370.8747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+201.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $78,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2010-09-20 Listed $21,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-09 Listed $25,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $859 · +24.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.