28195 Juniper Tree · Menifee, CA 92585

$689,999

6 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,471 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2004 10,454 sqft lot Est $750k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perched in one of Menifee's most desirable locations, this expansive 6-bedroom home offers some of the most breathtaking views in the neighborhood. From sunrise to sunset, you'll enjoy panoramic vistas that create the perfect backdrop for everyday living. Inside, the recently renovated kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring modern updates and plenty of space for gathering, entertaining, and making memories. With six generously sized bedrooms, there's room for everyone—whether you need space for a large family, guests, a home office, or multi-generational living. The home has been thoughtfully refreshed with both interior and exterior paint completed within the last year, p

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-family dwelling (1 unit); Lot features: 0-1 unit/acre
• HOA & community: Curbs; Biking; Foothills

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: House; Two stories; Entry level is ground floor
• Construction: No common walls; Year built: public records
• Exterior features: Back yard; Yard; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Main floor bedroom(s): 2
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 2 main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Formal entry; Walk-in closet; Walk-in pantry; Bonus room; Family room; Front door entry; Two levels; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in an individual room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $690k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-307 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $636k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $531k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $531k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.6% in Menifee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.4%/yr); 179 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,311/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 531% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($680k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $252k; list at $690k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $531,104 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $749,736
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27979 Merbie Cir	0.08mi	6/3.5	3,459 (-0%)	24mo	$720,000	$208	76
27894 Tate Rd	0.30mi	6/3.5	3,255 (-6%)	15mo	$850,000	$261	63
27852 Whittington Rd	0.35mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,356 (-3%)	18mo	$700,000	$209	58
27948 Whittington Rd	0.36mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,356 (-3%)	18mo	$720,000	$215	58
28652 Pensthorpe Cir	0.45mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,356 (-3%)	12mo	$865,000	$258	56
27780 Whittington Rd	0.37mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,356 (-3%)	23mo	$725,000	$216	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-103,409
• Equity at exit: $102,881

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $12,145
• Equity at exit: $59,659

Cash invested: $193,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92585

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 10.4%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,618
• Tax from tax record: −$597 /mo · $7,167/yr
• Insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,115
• Net cashflow: $-307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,700

Max offer price $635,678

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $172,500
• Closing costs: $20,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28448 Ripple Brook Ln Menifee, CA	5.0	3.5	3840	$4,500	$1.17	24d	1	1.37mi
26877 Chance Dr Menifee, CA	5.0	3.5	2800	$7,500	$2.68	24d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $689,999 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $689,999 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $689,999 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $689,999 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $689,999 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $689,999 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $689,999 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $689,999 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   remarks 693-char remark
10. 2026-06-03
    listed $689,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,167 · $597/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,167 · $597/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,651
• − Property taxes: −$7,167
• − Insurance: −$3,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,099
• − Management: −$5,099
• − Depreciation: −$20,073
• Taxable loss: −$15,806
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,793
• After-tax cash flow: $103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Menifee, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 29,534
• Household income: $106,667
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 531.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 27% Two or more races 24% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.87%
• Current HPI: 358.626
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.43%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+19.0% since first listed

47 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $689,999 CRMLS
• 2026-06-02 Coming Soon $689,999 CRMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $690,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $850,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $899,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-17 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $900,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $950,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $1,000,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $1,050,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $1,500,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-16 Listed $1,100,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-11 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2009-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $271,000 Public Records
• 2009-06-29 Sold (MLS) $252,000 CRMLS
• 2009-05-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-04-28 Listed $259,900 CRMLS
• 2009-04-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-04-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-04-23 Listed $259,900 CRMLS
• 2009-04-13 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2009-02-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-02-10 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2009-01-29 Price Changed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2009-01-29 Listed $305,900 CRMLS
• 2009-01-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-01-26 Listed $305,900 CRMLS
• 2008-12-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-10-23 Price Changed $305,900 CRMLS
• 2008-09-23 Listed $319,900 CRMLS
• 2008-04-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-02-16 Listed $369,900 CRMLS
• 2008-02-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-01-08 Price Changed $369,900 CRMLS
• 2007-12-29 Listed $385,000 CRMLS
• 2007-11-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-10-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-09-22 Listed $419,000 CRMLS
• 2007-09-13 Price Changed $419,000 CRMLS
• 2007-09-12 Price Changed $419,900 CRMLS
• 2007-08-23 Price Changed $437,000 CRMLS
• 2007-07-20 Price Changed $449,000 CRMLS
• 2007-06-19 Listed $475,000 CRMLS
• 2006-05-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-01-30 Listed $580,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,167 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.