9306 Bertwood St · Houston, TX 77016

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 959 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1948 7,379 sqft lot $203/sqft · 42% above area Est $172k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a vibrant Houston community, this beautifully remodeled bungalow-style home offers a perfect blend of classic curb appeal and modern comfort. Originally built in 1948, the home has been thoughtfully updated with a contemporary open-concept layout while maintaining the inviting feel of its covered front porch. A full privacy fence and secure gated driveway create a peaceful retreat, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Located just minutes from Houston’s thriving culture, dining, stadiums. and arts scene, this home provides the convenience of city living with the comfort of a private sanctuary. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or looking to downsize without compromising quality, this move-in-ready home is a rare opportunity at an attractive price point. Call to schedule your private tour today and experience the comfort, style, and convenience this property has to offer.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Private sanctuary
• Full privacy fence

Tags

• REMODELED BUNGALOW
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULL PRIVACY FENCE
• SECURE GATED DRIVEWAY
• PRIVATE SANCTUARY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-339 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (39.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (39.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,743 (39.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.45%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,975
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 13.39%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9401 Heatherside St	0.32mi	2/1.0	976 (+2%)	4mo	$89,000	$91	79
5118 Firnat St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	944 (-2%)	2mo	$95,000	$101	71
5713 Rietta St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+0%)	4mo	$204,500	$213	70
9009 Compton St	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+8%)	5mo	$130,000	$125	68
5715 Rietta St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+0%)	7mo	$204,500	$213	68
9318 Bertwood St	0.04mi	2/1.0	845 (-12%)	13mo	$129,999	$154	68
5109 Fitch St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,058 (+10%)	2mo	$180,000	$170	52
4814 Firnat St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	866 (-10%)	1mo	$80,000	$92	49
8708 Wileyvale Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,036 (+8%)	1mo	$204,250	$197	48
5019 Antha St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (-7%)	22mo	$196,999	$222	41
5107 Firnat St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,090 (+14%)	14mo	$210,000	$193	35
5617 Westbrook Rd	0.73mi	2/1.0	815 (-15%)	22mo	$85,000	$104	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $63,923
• Equity at exit: $156,834

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $196,580
• Equity at exit: $319,985

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,982/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,606

Max offer price $135,134

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-229	-5% $-284	+0% $-339	+5% $-394	+10% $-449
Rent	-10% $-432	-5% $-385	+0% $-339	+5% $-292	+10% $-246
Rate	-1.0pp $-241	-0.5pp $-289	base $-339	+0.5pp $-389	+1.0pp $-441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	45d	1	0.75mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	45d	1	0.75mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	45d	1	0.75mi
4419 Trigg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	1d	1	0.89mi
4419 Trigg St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,145	$1.31	45d	1	0.89mi
4679 Weaver Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$990	$1.16	45d	1	1.08mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	45d	1	1.15mi
4442 Weaver Rd Unit 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	26d	1	1.18mi
8015 Elbert St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,650	$1.62	9d	1	1.21mi
4422 Weaver Rd Apt 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	45d	1	1.25mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 16 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	45d	1	1.32mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	7d	1	1.32mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 17 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	26d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-05-16
    status Pending 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    Nestled in a vibrant Houston community, this beautifully remodeled bungalow-style home offers a perfect blend of classic curb appeal and modern comfort. Originally built in 1948, the home has been thoughtfully updated with a contemporary open-concept layout while maintaining the inviting feel of its covered front porch. A full privacy fence and secure gated driveway create a peaceful retreat, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Located just minutes from Houston’s thriving culture, dining, stadiums. and arts scene, this home provides the convenience of city living with the comfort of a private sanctuary. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or looking to downsize without compromising quality, this move-in-ready home is a rare opportunity at an attractive price point. Call to schedule your private tour today and experience the comfort, style, and convenience this property has to offer.

14. 2026-01-23
    listed $195,000 Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    Nestled in a vibrant Houston community, this beautifully remodeled bungalow-style home offers a perfect blend of classic curb appeal and modern comfort. Originally built in 1948, the home has been thoughtfully updated with a contemporary open-concept layout while maintaining the inviting feel of its covered front porch. A full privacy fence and secure gated driveway create a peaceful retreat, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Located just minutes from Houston’s thriving culture, dining, stadiums. and arts scene, this home provides the convenience of city living with the comfort of a private sanctuary. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or looking to downsize without compromising quality, this move-in-ready home is a rare opportunity at an attractive price point. Call to schedule your private tour today and experience the comfort, style, and convenience this property has to offer.

15. 2024-10-09
    soldstatus
16. 2024-09-16
    soldstatus Sold 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    CAN'T BEAT THIS HOME on this fixer upper home conveniently located in the North Shadydale subdivision. .. Buy to fix and live in it or as an investment to rent, either way this is a DEAL!!!. .. GREAT LOCATION close to everything. .. SOLD WITH TERMS or cash. .. Deal this amazing will not last. .. HURRY this hidden GEM has LOTS of potential. .. . Excellent INVESTMENT property!! DO NOT MISS OUT. .. .CALL US TODAY!!!

17. 2024-08-30
    listed $109,900 Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    CAN'T BEAT THIS HOME on this fixer upper home conveniently located in the North Shadydale subdivision. .. Buy to fix and live in it or as an investment to rent, either way this is a DEAL!!!. .. GREAT LOCATION close to everything. .. SOLD WITH TERMS or cash. .. Deal this amazing will not last. .. HURRY this hidden GEM has LOTS of potential. .. . Excellent INVESTMENT property!! DO NOT MISS OUT. .. .CALL US TODAY!!!

18. 2019-12-11
    soldstatus
19. 2017-12-13
    soldstatus
20. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,982 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,586/yr (+$132/mo · 80.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,982
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,130
• − Management: −$1,130
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$7,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,844
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+77.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-09-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Listed $109,900 HARMLS
• 2019-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+16.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,982 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.