Ramsey Plan · Deerwood, TX 77306

$231,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $231,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan: Ramsey); Active new construction listing
• Construction: Built as new construction (plan); Living area approximately 1667
• Exterior features: Address: 10728 Crockett Martin Rd, Conroe TX 77306

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Ramsey); Living area approximately 1667

🏗️ New construction. The $231,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $225,045.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $209,481 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.90%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,045
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10704 Crockett Meadows Blvd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (+0%)	12mo	$360,000	$215	82
10743 Red Flagstone Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,789 (+7%)	3mo	$229,900	$129	74
10719 Red Flagstone Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,789 (+7%)	1mo	$246,900	$138	72
10767 Red Flagstone Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,789 (+7%)	9mo	$227,900	$127	71
10774 Red Flagstone Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,882 (+13%)	6mo	$241,900	$129	66
10734 Red Flagstone Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,789 (+7%)	12mo	$237,900	$133	65
10775 Red Flagstone Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-10%)	10mo	$229,900	$152	65
10771 Red Flagstone Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,897 (+14%)	5mo	$244,900	$129	64
10707 Red Flagstone Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-10%)	2mo	$234,900	$156	64
10759 Red Flagstone Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,882 (+13%)	12mo	$252,900	$134	58
10750 Red Flagstone Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	1,882 (+13%)	12mo	$253,900	$135	58
10735 Red Flagstone Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,882 (+13%)	12mo	$266,900	$142	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-30,088
• Equity at exit: $33,555

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-17,898
• Equity at exit: $19,458

Cash invested: $63,013 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,376/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,969

Max offer price $225,045

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,261
• Closing costs: $6,751
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10050 Cerritos Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,499	$1.07	24d	1	0.91mi
15743 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1811	$1,895	$1.05	43d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $231,990 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $231,990 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 414-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $231,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,606
• − Property taxes: −$3,376
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − Depreciation: −$6,547
• Taxable loss: −$2,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$609
• After-tax cash flow: $1,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-story home is move-in ready with modern features and excellent curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B