5536 New Colony Dr · Virginia Beach, VA 23464

$274,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Townhouse public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $278k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful townhome in nice area of VA Beach. This spacious townhouse is in great area with great schools. Perfect for first time home owners.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1972
• Listed 18 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA/POA fees listed

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway spaces (2 total)
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Attached property; Contemporary style; Two stories (two living levels); Entry level: not listed
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Back privacy wood fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with ensuite; Additional bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Virginia Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in VA, #880 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• Va Beach City Public School District (urban): math 69% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #10 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Fairfield Elementary (math 67% / reading 75%, grade A-, #303 of 1,108 statewide, top 28%, 477 students, 42% FRL); Tallwood High (math 81% / reading 88%, grade A, #23 of 319 statewide, top 8%, 1,861 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 666 units permitted in Virginia Beach city in 2024 (347 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Virginia Beach County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($270k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,467 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $277,830
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5623 Gates Landing Rd	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,454 (-1%)	10mo	$275,000	$189	84
888 Jamestown Landing Rd	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,511 (+3%)	11mo	$289,000	$191	81
802 Pepper Mill Pl	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,511 (+3%)	13mo	$278,000	$184	80
5516 Gates Landing Rd	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,500 (+2%)	12mo	$150,000	$100	78
701 Skipwith Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+6%)	6mo	$315,000	$203	77
806 Westport Pl	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,636 (+11%)	2mo	$305,000	$186	76
5630 Gates Landing Rd	0.15mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,377 (-6%)	7mo	$205,000	$149	68
5645 Gates Landing Rd	0.11mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,257 (-14%)	8mo	$270,000	$215	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-44,291
• Equity at exit: $40,854

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-16,042
• Equity at exit: $23,691

Cash invested: $76,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23464

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,075 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,390/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,215

Max offer price $254,350

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,500
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
806 Jamestowne Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,000	$1.18	21d	1	0.02mi
5519 New Colony Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,795	$1.22	23d	1	0.07mi
658 Oleander Cir Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.5	1254	$2,050	$1.63	23d	1	0.86mi
5485 Glenville Cir Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1588	$2,500	$1.57	23d	1	0.92mi
611 Oleander Cir Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,900	$1.52	14d	1	0.99mi
1048 Commonwealth Pl Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1242	$2,150	$1.73	23d	1	1.19mi
5313 Sir Barton Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,750	$1.77	23d	1	1.25mi
1102 Clear Springs Rd Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,695	$1.32	23d	1	1.25mi
1101 Craftsman Dr Virginia Beach, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$1,909	$1.88	2d	22	1.40mi
6308 Blakely Sq Virginia Beach, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$2,629	$2.54	3d	17	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $274,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    remarks 141-char remark
12. 2026-06-01
    listed $279,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,390 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,390 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$2,390
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,992
• − Management: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$6,167
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,480
• After-tax cash flow: $145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Va Beach City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103840
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $66,452
• Composite: 63.81/100
• National rank: #594
• State rank: #10 of 131 in VA

Livability — Virginia Beach

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #880

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Virginia Beach, VA
• County: Virginia Beach City · 448,227 people
• City population: 448,227
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 75,061
• Household income: $92,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1929.0

Population outlook (Virginia Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 480,401 people
• By 2030: 491,221 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 504,882 · +5.1%
• By 2050: 508,847 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 504,831 · +5.1%
• By 2100: 465,867 · -3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 23% Asian 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 5% Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Virginia Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -0.7pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.5 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -271.27%
• Current HPI: 324.1854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.36%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+402.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $279,000 REINMLS
• 2019-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $390,000 Public Records
• 2013-12-20 Price Changed $109,900 REINMLS
• 2013-08-09 Price Changed $129,900 REINMLS
• 2006-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $194,000 Public Records
• 1987-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $55,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,390 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.