453 Bishop Rd · Smiths Station, AL 36877

$190,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2021 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautiful 2021 double wide located in Smiths Station, Alabama! This home features 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, and offers a spacious and inviting open-concept layout. The heart of the home is the open kitchen, featuring a large center island, stylish cabinetry, and plenty of counter space. Perfect for cooking, dining, and entertaining. The living area flows seamlessly with warm flooring, recessed lighting. This split-bedroom floor plan provides privacy for the primary suite, which includes a large bathroom with a double vanity and garden tub. With a like-new feel, modern finishes, and open design, this home is move-in ready.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.5% in Smiths Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#129 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Lee County (rural): math 23% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #40 of 129 in AL (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1,858 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (113 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +54% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,156 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.13%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,296
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
355 Lee Road 0438	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (+12%)	22mo	$89,000	$59	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-16,414
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,939
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36877

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $402/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,404

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $281	+0% $227	+5% $173	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $160	+0% $227	+5% $294	+10% $361
Rate	-1.0pp $323	-0.5pp $276	base $227	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-08
   status Active
3. 2026-02-06
   status Active
4. 2026-01-17
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-15
   status Active
6. 2025-11-24
   status Pending
7. 2025-11-03
   listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $402 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$377/yr (+$31/mo · 93.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$402
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$472
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$113
• After-tax cash flow: $2,840/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County
• NCES district ID: 0102070
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,786
• Composite: 30.04/100
• National rank: #6355
• State rank: #40 of 129 in AL

Livability — Smiths Station

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #13134

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smiths Station, AL
• Population (ZIP): 12,878

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,440 people
• By 2030: 217,417 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 259,467 · +32.1%
• By 2050: 301,557 · +53.5%
• By 2075: 402,186 · +104.7%
• By 2100: 474,503 · +141.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 21% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.5% · R 63.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.8pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+19.9 2008: R+19.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.67%
• Current HPI: 201.1033
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Pending — EABOR
• 2026-02-08 Relisted — EABOR
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — EABOR
• 2026-01-17 Pending — EABOR
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — EABOR
• 2025-11-24 Pending — EABOR
• 2025-11-03 Listed $190,000 EABOR

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $402 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.