11309 Leisure Ln · Bayonet Point, FL 34668

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Manufactured public records · 413 Days on market

Built 1984 4,620 sqft lot Est $138k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Doublewide Mobil on own lot. No HOA. This property features 2 bedrooms, 2 bath, open floor, kitchen with eat in area fenced-in back yard.

Key facts

• No lot rent
• Own lot
• No flood zone

Tags

• DOUBLEWIDE MOBILE HOME
• OWN LOT
• NO HOA
• NO LOT RENT
• NO FLOOD ZONE
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R4
• HOA & community: No association fees required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Ground-level parking; Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water (available and connected); Septic tank; Electricity available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Northeast facing entry
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Outdoor kitchen; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Chain link fence; Shed(s); Mature landscaping; Paved lot; Street lights in community

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Kitchen/family room combo
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $514 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Highlands Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 714 students, 89% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 577 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,812/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 2699% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 413 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 413 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.18%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,288
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7127 Commons Blvd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+7%)	3mo	$100,000	$91	80
7200 Johnson Rd	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+5%)	17mo	$148,000	$137	64
7318 Allyson St	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+5%)	11mo	$145,000	$134	57
6527 Eleanor Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,032 (0%)	10mo	$59,000	$57	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,115
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $35,134
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 577
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,812 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,166/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,162

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	24d	1	0.20mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.24mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	0.24mi
11103 Harding Dr Unit 2 Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,450	$1.91	20d	1	0.25mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	0.26mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	20d	1	0.28mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	0.28mi
11031 Hassle Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1006	$1,595	$1.59	24d	1	0.33mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	5d	1	0.33mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	24d	1	0.37mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	5d	1	0.40mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	24d	1	0.44mi
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	24d	1	0.46mi
7202 Palisade Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1310	$1,100	$0.84	24d	1	0.47mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	4d	1	0.48mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,811	$1.61	5d	1	0.52mi
6731 Sandra Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	24d	1	0.53mi
10803 Hyssop St Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	11d	1	0.57mi
10905 Kingsbridge Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,566	$1.33	5d	1	0.57mi
7438 Coventry Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	13d	1	0.62mi
10825 Scenic Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1140	$1,450	$1.27	11d	1	0.64mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	13d	1	0.65mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	11d	1	0.67mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	24d	1	0.67mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	24d	1	0.69mi
11902 Oceanside Dr Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	3d	1	0.74mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	13d	1	0.75mi
7416 Star Dust Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	22d	1	0.76mi
10801 Oldham Rd Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$1,500	$1.27	2d	1	0.78mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	5d	1	0.78mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	22d	1	0.78mi
10629 Cymbid Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	24d	1	0.79mi
10816 Piccadilly Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,550	$1.10	13d	1	0.81mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	24d	1	0.81mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	18d	1	0.85mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	24d	1	0.85mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	18d	1	0.86mi
7808 Talisman Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1063	$2,100	$1.98	24d	1	0.89mi
10802 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	24d	1	0.91mi
8024 Las Cruces Ct Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1371	$1,900	$1.39	24d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 413 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 412 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 411 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 410 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 408 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 404 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 403 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 402 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $145,000 Active 399 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 398 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 397 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 396 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 395 DOM
14. 2026-03-23
    price $145,000
15. 2025-08-22
    price $150,000
16. 2025-06-05
    price $153,000
17. 2025-05-01
    listed $155,000 Active
18. 2022-02-11
    soldstatus $138,000 Closed 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Doublewide Mobil on own lot. No HOA. This property features 2 bedrooms, 2 bath, open floor, kitchen with eat in area fenced-in back yard.

19. 2022-02-11
    soldstatus $138,000

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Doublewide Mobil on own lot. No HOA. This property features 2 bedrooms, 2 bath, open floor, kitchen with eat in area fenced-in back yard.

20. 2022-01-30
    status Pending 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Doublewide Mobil on own lot. No HOA. This property features 2 bedrooms, 2 bath, open floor, kitchen with eat in area fenced-in back yard.

21. 2021-11-13
    listed $149,000 Active 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Doublewide Mobil on own lot. No HOA. This property features 2 bedrooms, 2 bath, open floor, kitchen with eat in area fenced-in back yard.

22. 2017-10-20
    soldstatus $48,000
23. 2017-10-13
    soldstatus $48,000 Sold 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    I 'M CUTE, 2 BEDROOM, 2 FULL BATHS. OVER 1000 SQ FT. REMODELED. COOL 3 VESEL SINKS. HIS N HER SINKS. WALK IN CLOSET. ALL NEW DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS. C/H/A. YOU OWN THE LAND. FENCED IN YARD AND FENCED IN DRIVEWAY. CHEAP LIVING. WON T LAST. $48,900.

24. 2017-10-07
    status Pending 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    I 'M CUTE, 2 BEDROOM, 2 FULL BATHS. OVER 1000 SQ FT. REMODELED. COOL 3 VESEL SINKS. HIS N HER SINKS. WALK IN CLOSET. ALL NEW DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS. C/H/A. YOU OWN THE LAND. FENCED IN YARD AND FENCED IN DRIVEWAY. CHEAP LIVING. WON T LAST. $48,900.

25. 2017-10-04
    listed $48,900 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    I 'M CUTE, 2 BEDROOM, 2 FULL BATHS. OVER 1000 SQ FT. REMODELED. COOL 3 VESEL SINKS. HIS N HER SINKS. WALK IN CLOSET. ALL NEW DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS. C/H/A. YOU OWN THE LAND. FENCED IN YARD AND FENCED IN DRIVEWAY. CHEAP LIVING. WON T LAST. $48,900.

26. 2009-08-10
    soldstatus $50,000
27. 2009-01-26
    soldstatus $37,900
28. 2008-03-13
    listed $37,900
29. 2001-01-30
    soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,166 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$37/yr (+$3/mo · 3.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,166
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,740
• − Management: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $4,036
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$969
• After-tax cash flow: $5,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+339.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $153,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-11 Sold (MLS) $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-13 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-13 Sold (MLS) $48,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-04 Listed $48,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-26 Sold (MLS) $37,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-13 Listed $37,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,166 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.