806 Woodlawn · Hot Springs, AR 71913

$128,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 171 Days on market

Built 1956 Est $124k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

sld before listed

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Lifetime warranty
• New windows

Tags

• FENCED BACK YARD
• NEW WINDOWS
• LIFETIME WARRANTY
• STRONG RENTAL HISTORY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($791/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hot Springs Junior Academy (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #166 of 201 statewide, top 84%, 815 students, 100% FRL, charter); Hot Springs World Class High School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #252 of 292 statewide, top 87%, 739 students, 100% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 72% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,565 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1105 Richard St	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (+2%)	4mo	$127,000	$111	86
409 Henderson St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,156 (+3%)	4mo	$155,000	$134	60
514 Oaklawn St	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,209 (+8%)	10mo	$135,000	$112	59
101 Hood Pl	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (-2%)	1mo	$149,000	$136	57
316 Vineyard	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,210 (+8%)	10mo	$145,000	$120	54
400 Woodlawn Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,189 (+6%)	10mo	$82,000	$69	54
102 Chitwood St	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,036 (-8%)	2mo	$120,000	$116	52
310 Oaklawn St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+3%)	6mo	$78,000	$67	52
290 Woodlawn Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,256 (+12%)	1mo	$70,000	$56	50
302 Jerome St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,193 (+6%)	5mo	$65,000	$54	49
1616 Seventh St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,276 (+14%)	8mo	$63,900	$50	46
709 Richard St	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,266 (+13%)	10mo	$125,000	$99	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-12,710
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $11,237
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,086 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $806/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,002

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $102	+0% $66	+5% $30	+10% $-7
Rent	-10% $-20	-5% $23	+0% $66	+5% $109	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $98	base $66	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Sun St Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,150	$1.03	45d	1	0.57mi
410 Oakwood Ave Hot Springs, AR	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$999	$1.00	45d	6	0.59mi
143 Alpine St Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	45d	1	0.78mi
600 Higdon Ferry Rd #300 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,250	$0.90	45d	1	0.81mi
1036 Garland Ave Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	45d	1	1.28mi
210 Carl Dr Unit B6 Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	45d	1	1.41mi
104 Selma St Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	1.0	832	$950	$1.14	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-01
   historical
2. 2026-04-28
   soldstatus $122,000
3. 2026-04-06
   historical Take Backups
4. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-10
   price $128,000
6. 2026-03-09
   price $128,000
7. 2026-02-07
   price $130,000
8. 2026-02-06
   price $130,000
9. 2025-12-24
   price $133,500
10. 2025-12-23
    price $133,500
11. 2025-11-19
    price $136,500
12. 2025-11-18
    price $136,500
13. 2025-10-03
    listed $139,500 Active
14. 2025-10-03
    listed $139,500 New Listing
15. 2022-03-03
    soldstatus $90,500
16. 2022-02-28
    soldstatus $90,500 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    sld before listed

17. 2022-02-28
    soldstatus $90,500

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    sld before listed

18. 2022-01-28
    listed $90,500 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    sld before listed

19. 2022-01-28
    listed $90,500

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    sld before listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $806 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $819 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$13/yr (+$1/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$806
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,042
• − Management: −$1,042
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable loss: −$1,397
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$335
• After-tax cash flow: $1,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507890
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $28,817
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8746
• State rank: #195 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+34.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — HSBOR
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $128,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $128,000 HSBOR
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $130,000 CARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $130,000 HSBOR
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $133,500 CARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $133,500 HSBOR
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $136,500 CARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $136,500 HSBOR
• 2025-10-03 Listed $139,500 HSBOR
• 2025-10-03 Listed $139,500 CARMLS
• 2022-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records
• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $90,500 HSBOR
• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $90,500 CARMLS
• 2022-01-28 Listed $90,500 HSBOR
• 2022-01-28 Listed $90,500 CARMLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $806 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.