803 N Walnut · Steele, MO 63877

$79,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,930 sqft · Other public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1950 2.00 ac lot $41/sqft · 39% below area Est $130k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 54 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank; Electricity (single phase); Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Adjoins wooded area; State road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#642 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• South Pemiscot County R-V (rural): math 10% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #305 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Pemiscot High (math 2% / reading 42%, grade F, #459 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 245 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Pemiscot County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pemiscot County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.56%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,000
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -39.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $11,345
• Equity at exit: $16,802

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $39,152
• Equity at exit: $15,776

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63877

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $619/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $631

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $350	-5% $328	+0% $305	+5% $283	+10% $260
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $265	+0% $305	+5% $345	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $345	-0.5pp $325	base $305	+0.5pp $285	+1.0pp $264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $79,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $99,900
17. 2026-04-27
    listed $109,000 Active
18. 2020-06-22
    historical
19. 2020-02-04
    listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $619 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $766 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$147/yr (+$12/mo · 23.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$619
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$977
• − Management: −$977
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $2,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$605
• After-tax cash flow: $3,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Pemiscot County R-V
• NCES district ID: 2928530
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,294
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9150
• State rank: #305 of 324 in MO

Livability — Steele

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #642
• US rank: #21740

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Steele, MO
• Population (ZIP): 3,059

Population outlook (Pemiscot County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,803 people
• By 2030: 14,934 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,246 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 11,669 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 8,426 · -46.7%
• By 2100: 6,057 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Scottish 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pemiscot

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.3% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.1pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+44.6 2016: R+33.5 2012: R+14.6 2008: R+13.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.60%
• Current HPI: 114.253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+5.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $79,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $95,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $109,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-22 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2020-02-04 Listed $75,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $619 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.