0 Third St · Leakey, TX 78873

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 168 Days on market

0.31 ac lot $121/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quintessential elements abounding throughout this historic 1900's home located on .3 of acre lot TBS in Leakey Texas. Sears & Roebuck catalog home with some TLC can make someone a forever home. Large pecan tree in the back yard with all city utilities available. The home consists of 2 bedrooms 1bath and approximately 1200 sq ft. Fireplace, large front porch and some other features make this home feel cozy, warm and with the right touches of preserving some history, this home could be in a historic

Key facts

• Large pecan tree
• Large front porch
• Historic home

Tags

• HISTORIC HOME
• LARGE PECAN TREE
• LARGE FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 0.2% in Leakey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,432 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Leakey ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #673 of 1,141 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Real County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $101,255 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,500
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -56.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
151 Mountain St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (-5%)	11mo	$230,000	$202	70
62 Timbers Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,225 (+2%)	2mo	$252,000	$206	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,770
• Equity at exit: $65,371

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $34,868
• Equity at exit: $100,880

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78873

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $-202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $115,749

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-102	-5% $-152	+0% $-202	+5% $-252	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-282	-5% $-242	+0% $-202	+5% $-162	+10% $-122
Rate	-1.0pp $-129	-0.5pp $-165	base $-202	+0.5pp $-240	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $145,000 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $145,000 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 152 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 148 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 147 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 146 DOM
18. 2026-01-05
    listed $145,000 New 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Quintessential elements abounding throughout this historic 1900's home located on .3 of acre lot TBS in Leakey Texas. Sears & Roebuck catalog home with some TLC can make someone a forever home. Large pecan tree in the back yard with all city utilities available. The home consists of 2 bedrooms 1bath and approximately 1200 sq ft. Fireplace, large front porch and some other features make this home feel cozy, warm and with the right touches of preserving some history, this home could be in a historic

19. 2025-10-29
    historical
20. 2025-05-19
    status Back on Market
21. 2025-04-29
    historical
22. 2025-02-06
    price $145,000
23. 2024-10-29
    listed $150,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$972
• − Management: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$5,034
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,208
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leakey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827000
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,418
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #8855
• State rank: #673 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Leakey

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1432
• US rank: #24474

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leakey, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,498

Population outlook (Real County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,289 people
• By 2030: 3,225 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 3,093 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 2,948 · -10.4%
• By 2075: 2,678 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 2,196 · -33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 2% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Real

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.9) · D 16.1% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -53.0pp · 2024: -66.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.9 2020: R+66.8 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+62.6 2008: R+53.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Current HPI: 149.7889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Listed $145,000 LERA
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-05-19 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-04-29 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $145,000 LERA
• 2024-10-29 Listed $150,000 LERA