221 Heron Rd · Largo, FL 33764

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2002 3,680 sqft lot $163/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Ranch Mobile Park in Clearwater, Florida. Just a 15-minute drive to the fine sandy beaches of the Gulf. The Ranch Mobile neighborhood and is a resident owned park (No Land Lease fees), with low $163 monthly maintenance fees, covering water, trash, sewer and use of park amenities. The home is not located in the pet portion of the park. Emotional support animals must have proper documentation. This 2002 Disabled Accessible home offers a thoughtfully designed split floor plan featuring vaulted ceilings and a spacious, open-concept living and dining area, galley kitchen. The layout includes 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a versatile 9’ x 11’ studio/den—the perfect san

Key facts

• Modern updates
• Galley kitchen
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• PRIVATE BACK PATIO
• MODERN UPDATES
• HIGH-END FLOORING
• GALLEY KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2009
• Construction: Living area approximately 960 (listed)
• Exterior features: Located in the Ranch subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.2% in Largo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#82 in FL, #1,240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $175k implies a 1067% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.62%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-14,140
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,436
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33764

• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,921 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,527

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $410	-5% $361	+0% $311	+5% $262	+10% $212
Rent	-10% $159	-5% $235	+0% $311	+5% $387	+10% $463
Rate	-1.0pp $399	-0.5pp $356	base $311	+0.5pp $266	+1.0pp $220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7001 142nd Ave Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	25d	1	0.23mi
7001 142nd Ave N Lot 179 Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,495	$2.27	18d	1	0.31mi
7001 142nd Ave N #157 Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,795	$2.24	19d	1	0.36mi
19137 US Highway 19 N Unit 2 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,738	$1.64	25d	1	0.42mi
14603 64th St N Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,900	$1.76	5d	1	0.48mi
6430 142nd Ave N Clearwater, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1216	$2,860	$2.35	3d	68	0.56mi
13500 Rodgers Ave Largo, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,474	$2.11	2d	5	0.69mi
305 Glades Cir Largo, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	875	$1,563	$1.79	3d	34	0.72mi
6262 142nd Ave N Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.5–2.0	1183	$1,725	$1.46	25d	2	0.73mi
4215 E Bay Dr Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	535	$2,300	$4.30	9d	4	0.89mi
4215 E Bay Dr Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	575	$1,775	$3.09	19d	3	0.89mi
4500 E Bay Dr #149 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,850	$1.76	25d	1	0.98mi
4500 E Bay Dr #138 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	25d	1	0.98mi
7298 Ulmerton Rd Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,750	$2.32	4d	3	1.03mi
7298 Ulmerton Rd Largo, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,750	$1.79	19d	4	1.03mi
7298 Ulmerton Rd Largo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,750	$2.32	3d	4	1.03mi
2770 Roosevelt Blvd Clearwater, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	795	$1,636	$2.06	16d	10	1.06mi
3736 141st Pl Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	805	$1,650	$2.05	25d	1	1.07mi
14330 58th St N Clearwater, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1161	$2,212	$1.90	3d	19	1.08mi
500 Belcher Rd S #18 Largo, FL	1.0	1.0	637	$1,500	$2.35	4d	1	1.09mi
15648 Morgan St Unit B Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,595	$1.93	12d	1	1.12mi
3767 138th Ave N Unit B Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,495	$1.92	3d	1	1.13mi
7360 Ulmerton Rd Unit 3C Largo, FL	1.0	1.0	846	$1,599	$1.89	25d	1	1.16mi
7360 Ulmerton Rd Unit 3C Largo, FL	1.0	1.0	846	$1,498	$1.77	9d	1	1.16mi
16485 US Highway 19 N Clearwater, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	984	$2,877	$2.92	3d	249	1.16mi
16485 US Highway 19 N Clearwater, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	984	$3,006	$3.06	19d	100	1.16mi
3718 138th Ave N Unit 2 Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,500	$2.00	25d	1	1.17mi
1601 Palm Way Largo, FL	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,950	$1.80	25d	1	1.18mi
12700 66th St Largo, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1105	$2,191	$1.98	3d	20	1.21mi
15301 58th St N Unit A Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	18d	1	1.23mi
779 34th St SE Unit 1319966P Largo, FL	2.0	1.0	990	$2,941	$2.97	9d	1	1.24mi
3331 Whispering Dr N Largo, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$2,190	$2.08	25d	1	1.30mi
15414 Avalon Ave Unit 2 Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.0	830	$1,700	$2.05	5d	1	1.40mi
15406 Avalon Ave Unit 4 Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	5d	1	1.40mi
15406 Avalon Ave Unit 3 Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	4d	1	1.40mi
15000 Westminister Ave Unit A Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	25d	1	1.41mi
15616 Avalon Ave #1 Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.0	804	$1,595	$1.98	3d	1	1.44mi
15616 Avalon Ave #1 Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,525	$1.79	4d	1	1.44mi
15616 Avalon Ave Unit 2 Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.0	804	$1,595	$1.98	15d	1	1.44mi
15616 Avalon Ave Unit 2 Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.0	804	$1,595	$1.98	5d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   remarks 681-char remark
10. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on marketlisting id $175,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-05-16
    listed $185,900 Active
14. 2003-02-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $630 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$823/yr (+$69/mo · 130.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,006
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$241
• After-tax cash flow: $3,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Largo

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #1240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Largo, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 106,311
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,311
• Household income: $67,256
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1118.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -350.08%
• Current HPI: 315.4133
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.24%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1139.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $185,900 FSBO.com
• 2003-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-9.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $630 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.