9410 Old Tennessee Pike Rd · Pinson, AL 35126

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1951 2.44 ac lot $123/sqft · 18% below area Est $122k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique Investment Opportunity! This fixer-upper features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and an additional room perfect for a home office, playroom, or guest room. Located just off Highway 79 in Pinson, the home provides easy access to Trussville, Gardendale, and downtown Birmingham, offering both convenience and tranquility. The property includes an unfinished basement and sitting on approximately 2 acres, providing ample space for gardens, recreation, or future expansion. Located minutes from proposed Northern Beltline connecting Highway 79 Pinson and Highway 75 Palmerdale.

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Home office
• 2.44 acre lot

Tags

• HOME OFFICE
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• APPROXIMATELY 2 ACRES
• EASY ACCESS TO TRUSSVILLE
• EASY ACCESS TO GARDENDALE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $367 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 5.3% in Pinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#289 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.11%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,484
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -18.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $5,356
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $27,512
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35126

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $741/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $865

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4356 Higginbotham Rd Unit A Pinson, AL	1.0	1.0	848	$1,395	$1.65	1d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-04-04
   listed $100,000 Active 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Unique Investment Opportunity! This fixer-upper features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and an additional room perfect for a home office, playroom, or guest room. Located just off Highway 79 in Pinson, the home provides easy access to Trussville, Gardendale, and downtown Birmingham, offering both convenience and tranquility. The property includes an unfinished basement and sitting on approximately 2 acres, providing ample space for gardens, recreation, or future expansion. Located minutes from proposed Northern Beltline connecting Highway 79 Pinson and Highway 75 Palmerdale.

10. 2025-09-10
    price $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $741 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $741 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$741
• − Insurance: −$1,166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,277
• − Management: −$1,277
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,985
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$716
• After-tax cash flow: $3,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Pinson

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #18763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 22,599
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 22,599
• Household income: $83,732
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 267.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.52%
• Current HPI: 188.6439
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $100,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $99,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $741 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.