409 Church St · Oxford Junction, IA 52323

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1990

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Check out this home with new siding, windows and roof. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home features a walk through bedroom on the second level and 1 bedroom on the main level. Check out the garage with heating system. This home is in as is condition and is ready for its new owner!

Key facts

• New siding
• Heated garage
• Walk through bedroom

Tags

• NEW SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• WALK THROUGH BEDROOM
• HEATED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached heated garage with garage door opener (1 parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Two levels; Residential zoning
• Construction: Metal roof; Block and concrete perimeter foundation; Built as a residential single-family detached home
• Exterior features: Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes refrigerator, range, microwave
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating with propane
• Interior features: Refrigerator, Range, Microwave; No fireplace; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer provided; Laundry located on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($888 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#798 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Midland Community School District (rural): math 57% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #231 of 289 in IA (top 80%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Jones County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.50%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $27,528
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 1st Ave S	0.42mi	2/1.5 (-1)	864 (-3%)	20mo	$26,500	$31	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $24,738
• Equity at exit: $37,965

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $66,970
• Equity at exit: $62,047

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52323

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $888 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,122/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 272-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,122 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,150 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$28/yr (+$2/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,122
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$853
• − Management: −$853
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,075
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$258
• After-tax cash flow: $1,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1919200
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,981
• Composite: 52.19/100
• National rank: #1607
• State rank: #231 of 289 in IA

Livability — Oxford Junction

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #18173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oxford Junction, IA
• City population: 879
• Population (ZIP): 879

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,023 people
• By 2030: 19,702 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 19,007 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 18,396 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 17,955 · -10.3%
• By 2100: 17,448 · -12.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.3) · D 36.0% · R 62.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: -26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.3 2020: R+21.5 2016: R+19.4 2012: D+7.7 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.99%
• Current HPI: 139.6963
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $75,000 ECIMLS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,122 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.