16681 Heritage Pines Ln · Grangerland, TX 77302

$249,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily · 193 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,058 sqft lot $165/sqft · at area comps Est $256k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* New Section Now Open! * Love where you live in Granger Pines in Conroe, TX! The Palermo floorplan is a charming 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage! This home has it all, including privacy blinds, vinyl plank flooring throughout, and tray ceilings for some dramatic flair! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with an island overlooking the dining and family rooms, 42” white cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Washer, Dryer, and Refrigerator are included, too! Retreat to the Owner’s Suite featuring a beautiful bay window, double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with full sod, a sprinkler system, and a covered patio! Don’t miss your opportunity to call Granger Pines home, schedule a visit today!

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• 42 white cabinetry
• Granite countertops

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• TRAY CEILINGS
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• ISLAND OVERLOOKING DINING
• 42 WHITE CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-622/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $218,965 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,749
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -2.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15427 Woody Haven Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,516 (0%)	1mo	$249,990	$165	97
15623 Tranquil Pines St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,697 (+12%)	1mo	$254,990	$150	78
14150 Granger Pointe	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	0mo	$213,790	$148	66
14170 Granger Pointe Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-6%)	0mo	$227,940	$160	64
14162 Granger Pointe Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-6%)	1mo	$214,590	$150	64
14158 Granger Pointe Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+3%)	2mo	$254,040	$163	63
14166 Granger Pointe Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+3%)	2mo	$260,040	$167	63
14312 Grey Pointe Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	2mo	$236,940	$165	61
14171 Granger Pointe Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-7%)	0mo	$239,540	$170	60
16916 Rich Pines Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+4%)	2mo	$202,995	$129	59
14304 Grey Pointe	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-6%)	2mo	$221,590	$155	58
16891 Needlepoint Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+4%)	1mo	$224,900	$142	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-43,079
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-38,755
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,255

Max offer price $242,494

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $35	+0% $-52	+5% $-138	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-225	-5% $-138	+0% $-52	+5% $35	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $74	-0.5pp $12	base $-52	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	0d	13	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,990 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $249,990 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,990 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,990 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,990 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 180 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,990 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $254,990 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,990 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,990 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,990 Active 172 DOM
16. 2026-01-12
    price $254,990 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    * New Section Now Open! * Love where you live in Granger Pines in Conroe, TX! The Palermo floorplan is a charming 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage! This home has it all, including privacy blinds, vinyl plank flooring throughout, and tray ceilings for some dramatic flair! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with an island overlooking the dining and family rooms, 42” white cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Washer, Dryer, and Refrigerator are included, too! Retreat to the Owner’s Suite featuring a beautiful bay window, double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with full sod, a sprinkler system, and a covered patio! Don’t miss your opportunity to call Granger Pines home, schedule a visit today!

17. 2026-01-03
    price $254,990 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    The Palermo plan is a 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, dining area, and 2-car garage. It features a convenient kitchen island with space for high-top seating, spacious walk-in closet, oversized family room, large covered patio, and dedicated laundry room.

18. 2025-12-30
    listed $261,956 Active 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    The Palermo plan is a 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, dining area, and 2-car garage. It features a convenient kitchen island with space for high-top seating, spacious walk-in closet, oversized family room, large covered patio, and dedicated laundry room.

19. 2025-12-10
    listed $261,956 Active 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    * New Section Now Open! * Love where you live in Granger Pines in Conroe, TX! The Palermo floorplan is a charming 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage! This home has it all, including privacy blinds, vinyl plank flooring throughout, and tray ceilings for some dramatic flair! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with an island overlooking the dining and family rooms, 42” white cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Washer, Dryer, and Refrigerator are included, too! Retreat to the Owner’s Suite featuring a beautiful bay window, double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with full sod, a sprinkler system, and a covered patio! Don’t miss your opportunity to call Granger Pines home, schedule a visit today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,102
• − Management: −$2,102
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$4,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,164
• After-tax cash flow: $543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It's move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $254,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-30 Listed $261,956 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $261,956 HARMLS