21289 Maple Dr · Lost Bridge Village, AR 72732

$420,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2000 6,969 sqft lot Est $317k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Say hello to Beaver Lake Living with direct access to the water! Nestled in the woods on Beaver Lake, this charming cabin in Lost Bridge Village is the perfect lake retreat. Surrounded by mature trees, the property features two spacious decks & an 8x7 storage shed for lake toys & tools. Inside, you’ll find an inviting two-level layout with an open-concept living area, a nicely appointed kitchen, two bedrooms, & two full baths. The lower-level family room provides additional flexible living space & could serve as a third sleeping area or bunk room. Recent updates include a new dishwasher, sump pump, & water heater in 2022, plus a new microwave & refrig

Key facts

• Two spacious decks
• New sump pump
• New dishwasher

Tags

• TWO SPACIOUS DECKS
• 8X7 STORAGE SHED
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• LOWER-LEVEL FAMILY ROOM
• NEW DISHWASHER
• NEW SUMP PUMP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (dues billed annually and monthly); Community recreation area; Tennis courts; Community pool; Nearby park

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway parking
• Security: Security service
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story home
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation; Built using standard framing materials
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Storage structure; Lakefront on Beaver Lake; Near park; Resort property; Located in a subdivision; County road frontage; Paved road access; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Waste disposal
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on multiple levels
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Cathedral ceilings; Split bedroom layout; Finished basement; Wood burning stove fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $420k).
• Recommended offer: $407k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.8% in Lost Bridge Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $118k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $407,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.99%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,972
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12138 Dogwood Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+6%)	18mo	$400,000	$260	63
11747 Dogwood Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+6%)	7mo	$208,000	$135	53
11823 Dogwood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,346 (-7%)	20mo	$293,000	$218	49
12603 Timberline Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+9%)	1mo	$265,000	$167	46
21293 Ridgeview Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (-4%)	21mo	$400,000	$287	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $274,652
• Equity at exit: $307,935

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $712,975
• Equity at exit: $600,908

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72732

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,383 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,130
• Net cashflow: $1,763

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,151

Max offer price $420,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,001	-5% $1,882	+0% $1,763	+5% $1,644	+10% $1,525
Rent	-10% $1,338	-5% $1,550	+0% $1,763	+5% $1,976	+10% $2,188
Rate	-1.0pp $1,975	-0.5pp $1,870	base $1,763	+0.5pp $1,654	+1.0pp $1,544

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11889 White Oak Dr Unit 1221899P Garfield, AR	3.0	2.0	1280	$5,605	$4.38	44d	1	0.38mi
11704 Dogwood Dr Unit 1221916P Garfield, AR	1.0	2.0	1582	$5,055	$3.20	14d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $420,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $420,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $420,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $420,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $420,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $420,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $420,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $420,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,000 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    listed $420,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,342 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,688 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,346/yr (+$112/mo · 100.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,167
• − Management: −$5,167
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable income: $15,072
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,617
• After-tax cash flow: $17,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogers School District
• NCES district ID: 0511970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4113
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lost Bridge Village

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #21912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lost Bridge Village, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,493

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 27% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Danish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.61%
• Current HPI: 368.3932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $420,000 NWARMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,342 · -30.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.