5835 Cherokee Rd #61 · Stockton, CA 95215

$47,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Manufactured · 305 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1967 Fair condition $41/sqft · 18% above area Est $40k · 18% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.1

Listing remarks

Welcome to Bel Air Manufactured Housing Community, a 55+ community offering peaceful living.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1967
• Listed 304 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $47k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $632 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $47k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.1% vs local median 3.7% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Linden Unified (rural): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #806 of 1,400 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waverly Elementary (366 students, 77% FRL); Waterloo Elementary (332 students, 48% FRL); Linden High (761 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $325 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.66%
• DSCR: 3.83
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $40,000
• List price: $47,000
• Delta: 17.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5835 Cherokee Rd #34	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,072 (-8%)	17mo	$58,000	$54	70
5835 E Cherokee Rd #02	0.02mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,352 (+17%)	20mo	$113,000	$84	51
4900 N Highway 99 #151	1.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+8%)	14mo	$115,000	$92	35
4900 N Hwy. 99 #169	1.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+20%)	0mo	$76,900	$55	35
4900 N Highway 99 #61	1.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+16%)	18mo	$89,900	$67	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $32,679
• Equity at exit: $7,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.12×
• Total profit: $80,510
• Equity at exit: $4,064

Cash invested: $13,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95215

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$246
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$59 /mo · $705/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $632

Break-even live

Break-even rent $495

Max offer price $47,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $664	-5% $648	+0% $632	+5% $615	+10% $599
Rent	-10% $529	-5% $581	+0% $632	+5% $683	+10% $734
Rate	-1.0pp $655	-0.5pp $644	base $632	+0.5pp $620	+1.0pp $607

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,750
• Closing costs: $1,410
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $47,000 Active 305 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $47,000 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $47,000 Active 303 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $47,000 Active 302 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $47,000 Active 301 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $47,000 Active 300 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $47,000 Active 297 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $47,000 Active 296 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $47,000 Active 295 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $47,000 Active 294 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $47,000 Active 292 DOM
12. 2026-07-25
    days on market $47,000 Active 291 DOM
13. 2026-07-24
    days on market $47,000 Active 290 DOM
14. 2026-07-23
    days on market $47,000 Active 289 DOM
15. 2026-07-22
    days on market $47,000 Active 288 DOM
16. 2026-07-21
    days on market $47,000 Active 287 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $47,000 Active 284 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $50,000 Active 282 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    status $50,000 Active 281 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    status $50,000 Pending 281 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $50,000 Active 281 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $50,000 Active 280 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $50,000 Active 279 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $50,000 Active 278 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $50,000 Active 277 DOM
26. 2026-07-08
    price $50,000 Active 275 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $55,000 Active 275 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 274 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 272 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 271 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 270 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 269 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $55,000 Active 268 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $55,000 Active 267 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $55,000 Active 266 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $55,000 Active 265 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $55,000 Active 263 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $55,000 Active 261 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $55,000 Active 260 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $55,000 Active 257 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $55,000 Active 256 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $55,000 Active 255 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $55,000 Active 254 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $55,000 Active 252 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $55,000 Active 251 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $55,000 Active 249 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $55,000 Active 248 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 247 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 246 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 243 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,633
• − Property taxes: −$705
• − Insurance: −$1,032
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − Depreciation: −$1,367
• Taxable income: $7,315
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,756
• After-tax cash flow: $5,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $29,000–$52,200 screening

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, paint the exterior, and replace the carpet. These updates would significantly increase its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Minor exterior siding — green paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing kitchen would appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint exterior siding — fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both replace carpet with hardwood or tile — hardwood or tile flooring would increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Waverly Elementary High Linden High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Linden Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621810
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,534
• Composite: 34.76/100
• National rank: #10030
• State rank: #806 of 1400 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Joaquin · 796,965 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton-Lodi, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,032
• Household income: $68,189
• Rent vs Own: 39.0% rent · 61.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

---

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 65% Two or more races 23% White 23% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.84%
• Current HPI: 1200.44
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B