6950 Melanie Ct · Theodore, AL 36582

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1980 0.35 ac lot Est $207k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brick 3 bedroom 2 bath ranch style home in Theodore Highlands subdivision. Property features a brick fireplace, covered back porch, and a large fenced back yard. Foreclosure, subject to Alabama right of redemption laws. Information and measurements taken from public records. All information and measurements must be verified by the buyer prior to closing. Listing broker makes no representations to accuracy.

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Covered back porch
• 0.35 acre lot

Tags

• BRICK FIREPLACE
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• LARGE FENCED BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $547 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 5.0% in Theodore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#145 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nan Gray Davis Elementary School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #424 of 627 statewide, top 68%, 491 students, 78% FRL); Theodore High School (math 10% / reading 12%, grade F, #247 of 305 statewide, top 81%, 1,280 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 69% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.69%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,550
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6950 Melanie Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,350 (0%)	1mo	$125,000	$93	100
6771 Sandra Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,350 (0%)	5mo	$210,000	$156	86
6631 Sandra Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,350 (0%)	4mo	$205,000	$152	85
6799 Foxwood Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-0%)	4mo	$230,000	$171	80
6654 Destinee Nicole Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+1%)	4mo	$230,000	$168	75
6750 Barneswood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-6%)	3mo	$243,840	$192	74
6521 Barnes Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	3mo	$124,900	$100	69
6561 Apache Run	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-4%)	2mo	$186,500	$143	67
7068 Westfield Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+11%)	5mo	$230,000	$153	62
6831 Joy Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+0%)	9mo	$179,000	$132	58
6624 Morgan Jackson Ct	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (+9%)	5mo	$232,300	$157	53
6292 Woodside Dr S	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,223 (-9%)	2mo	$180,000	$147	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $15,537
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $58,340
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36582

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,663 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,116/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $970

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5831 Belle Terrace Dr Theodore, AL	3.0	1.5	1485	$1,550	$1.04	43d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,116
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,596
• − Management: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $4,921
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,181
• After-tax cash flow: $5,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Theodore

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #13651

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Theodore, AL
• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 23,705
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 23,705
• Household income: $64,763
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.61%
• Current HPI: 209.7621
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-20 Listed $119,000 GCMLS AL