18487 Thoroughbred Dr · Vance, AL 35490

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,094 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2006 0.40 ac lot Est $195k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The home is located in Vance, Al in the Bridle Brook Subdivision. Home has new flooring and has been freshly painted throughout.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Freshly painted
• 0.4 acre lot

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• FRESHLY PAINTED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Bridle Brook subdivision (Lot 29)
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Front entry attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Electric water heater; Internet availability unknown
• Home design: Vinyl-sided exterior; Slab foundation; Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Open patio; Porch; Garden/patio area

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Dishwasher (built-in); Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (main level); Additional bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Tray ceilings; Bay window
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Pull-down attic

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.6% in Vance — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vance Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #367 of 627 statewide, top 60%, 499 students, 69% FRL); Brookwood High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,078 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 45% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $199k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,294 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.85%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,732
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18412 Arabian Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,137 (+4%)	1mo	$226,500	$199	87
18393 Arabian Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,060 (-3%)	6mo	$189,000	$178	81
18480 Thoroughbred Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,117 (+2%)	19mo	$197,500	$177	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $116,703
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.05×
• Total profit: $336,838
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $469/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,475

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 128-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $469 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$346/yr (+$29/mo · 73.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$469
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,577
• − Management: −$1,577
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,840
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$442
• After-tax cash flow: $2,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+68.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $199,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-11-21 Listed $159,900 WAMLS
• 2012-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $112,800 Public Records
• 2008-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $118,350 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $469 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.