2123 Effingham St · Portsmouth, VA 23704

$126,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,796 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1916 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom, 2 bath traditional home in the Brighton neighborhood of Portsmouth.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1916
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 4.6% in Portsmouth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#172 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Portsmouth City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #107 of 131 in VA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Park View Elementary (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 463 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 60% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 300 units permitted in Portsmouth city in 2024 (112 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,220/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1727% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $875 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.79%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2121 Effingham St	0.01mi	3/1.5	1,650 (-8%)	1mo	$280,000	$170	83
2317 Chestnut St	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,560 (-13%)	1mo	$260,000	$167	69
2506 Oak St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,700 (-5%)	2mo	$278,000	$164	65
908 Lincoln St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,554 (-14%)	1mo	$281,900	$181	62
1421 Wilcox Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+0%)	2mo	$155,000	$86	61
815 Argyle St	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (+11%)	2mo	$330,000	$165	61
2010 Camden Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-11%)	3mo	$272,000	$170	59
1801 Elm Ave	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,608 (-10%)	2mo	$290,000	$180	56
2100 Elm Ave	0.37mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,988 (+11%)	1mo	$265,000	$133	53
1908 Elm Ave	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,554 (-14%)	2mo	$230,000	$148	53
1211 Centre Ave	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (+11%)	3mo	$339,000	$170	46
723 Washington St	0.73mi	3/2.5	2,015 (+12%)	0mo	$380,000	$189	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,610
• Equity at exit: $18,862

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $41,399
• Equity at exit: $10,937

Cash invested: $35,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23704

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$663
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,609/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,722

Max offer price $126,500

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $465	-5% $430	+0% $394	+5% $358	+10% $322
Rent	-10% $218	-5% $306	+0% $394	+5% $482	+10% $569
Rate	-1.0pp $458	-0.5pp $426	base $394	+0.5pp $361	+1.0pp $328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,625
• Closing costs: $3,795
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
919 Jefferson St Portsmouth, VA	4.0	2.5	2026	$2,500	$1.23	24d	1	0.17mi
818 Coolidge St Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	1230	$2,100	$1.71	44d	1	0.19mi
1440 Lasalle Ave Portsmouth, VA	4.0	2.0	1493	$2,500	$1.67	24d	1	0.41mi
2111 Atlanta Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,395	$1.69	44d	1	0.44mi
2215 Atlanta Ave Portsmouth, VA	4.0	1.0	1628	$2,150	$1.32	8d	1	0.45mi
1508 Richmond Ave Portsmouth, VA	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	3d	1	0.63mi
1409 Wilcox Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,500	$1.39	44d	1	0.68mi
20149 County St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1738	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	0.79mi
1321 Columbia St Unit 1533640P Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1582	$5,609	$3.55	8d	1	0.82mi
1447 Talley Cir Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,000	$1.39	24d	1	0.89mi
414 London St Unit 3 Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,595	$1.00	24d	1	0.99mi
2304 Nashville Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.5	1226	$1,395	$1.14	44d	1	1.02mi
403 Court St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.5	2380	$1,950	$0.82	24d	1	1.04mi
511 Hampton Pl Unit A Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	2100	$2,950	$1.40	44d	1	1.11mi
528 Hampton Pl Unit 3 Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,000	$1.21	17d	1	1.13mi
1914 King St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1332	$2,200	$1.65	45d	1	1.23mi
1008 Grayson St Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,495	$1.13	44d	1	1.32mi
148 Owens St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,350	$1.57	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-15
   listed $126,500 Active
3. 2017-01-12
   price $135,000
4. 2016-12-06
   status Under Contract
5. 2016-10-03
   listed $139,500 Active
6. 2016-05-31
   status Under Contract
7. 2016-05-07
   status Active
8. 2016-05-05
   historical
9. 2016-03-30
   listed $59,000 Active
10. 2010-04-06
    soldstatus $139,600
11. 2007-03-12
    soldstatus $161,000
12. 2004-03-05
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,609 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,609 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,086
• − Property taxes: −$2,609
• − Insurance: −$5,751
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − Depreciation: −$3,680
• Taxable income: $3,252
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$781
• After-tax cash flow: $3,945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portsmouth City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103000
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -40.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,152
• Composite: 39.01/100
• National rank: #4071
• State rank: #107 of 131 in VA

Livability — Portsmouth

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #5381

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portsmouth, VA
• County: Portsmouth City · 96,366 people
• City population: 96,366
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 19,207
• Household income: $49,583
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1727.0

Population outlook (Portsmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 96,730 people
• By 2030: 96,760 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 96,573 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 95,606 · -1.2%
• By 2075: 93,579 · -3.3%
• By 2100: 83,756 · -13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 24% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Portsmouth

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.6) · D 68.6% · R 30.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 39.3pp · 2024: 38.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.6 2020: D+40.8 2016: D+36.5 2012: D+39.6 2008: D+39.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.69%
• Current HPI: 322.7335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.31%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+20.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $126,500 REINMLS
• 2017-01-12 Price Changed $135,000 REINMLS
• 2016-12-06 Pending — REINMLS
• 2016-10-03 Listed $139,500 REINMLS
• 2016-05-31 Pending — REINMLS
• 2016-05-07 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2016-05-05 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2016-03-30 Listed $59,000 REINMLS
• 2010-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $139,600 Public Records
• 2007-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $161,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,609 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.