105 E Oak St · Warrenton, MO 63383

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,556 sqft · Other public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1994 0.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1156sf home is move-in ready...has been updated, including plumbing and electric with 200 amp service. New flooring. New roof with architectural shingles in 2024. HVAC is approx 10 yrs. Completely wheelchair accessible with Zero entrance. There is an additional 400sf of unfinished space on the second floor. Mobile home is included in the sale and is currently leased, providing instant income (details are available).

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Updated electric
• 200 amp service

Tags

• MOVE-IN READY
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• UPDATED ELECTRIC
• 200 AMP SERVICE
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,156 (per public records)
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Community of 2 units

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity (Ameren); Natural gas connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residential (manufactured house); One story
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Additional residence and mobile home on the property
• Exterior features: Deck; No-step entry; Storm door(s); Back yard; City lot; Level lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen/dining combo; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($570/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.5% in Warrenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#120 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Warren County R-III (town): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #172 of 324 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rebecca Boone Elem. (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #842 of 1,115 statewide, top 76%, 448 students, 58% FRL); Black Hawk Middle (math 25% / reading 43%, grade F, #255 of 391 statewide, top 66%, 698 students, 43% FRL); Warrenton High (math 28% / reading 57%, grade F, #216 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 997 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 424 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (126 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $158,005 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,639
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-21,311
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63383

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,580 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,163/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,520

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $103	+0% $48	+5% $-8	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $-15	+0% $48	+5% $110	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $97	base $48	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 E Walton St Warrenton, MO	3.0	2.0	1666	$1,700	$1.02	45d	1	0.18mi
216 E Walton St Warrenton, MO	3.0	2.0	1666	$1,700	$1.02	9d	1	0.18mi
745 Wabash St Unit 761 Truesdale, MO	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,075	$0.93	25d	1	0.72mi
1044 Hawthorn Village Dr Unit 1011 Hawthorne Warrenton, MO	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,375	$1.28	45d	1	0.84mi
1044 Hawthorn Village Dr Unit 1027 Hawthorne Warrenton, MO	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,395	$1.29	3d	1	0.86mi
100 Arlington Way Warrenton, MO	2.0	1.0–2.5	901	$1,268	$1.41	0d	3	1.00mi
1060 Arlington Way Warrenton, MO	2.0	2.5	1152	$1,495	$1.30	0d	1	1.18mi
1056 Arlington Way Warrenton, MO	2.0	2.5	1152	$1,495	$1.30	0d	1	1.18mi
16901 Cattail Bottoms Dr Warrenton, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1232	$1,330	$1.08	0d	7	1.36mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   remarks 426-char remark
4. 2026-06-19
   listed $195,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$729/yr (+$61/mo · 62.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,163
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,517
• − Management: −$1,517
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,806
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$674
• After-tax cash flow: $1,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County R-III
• NCES district ID: 2931050
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,644
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5690
• State rank: #172 of 324 in MO

Livability — Warrenton

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #7300

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrenton, MO
• Population (ZIP): 16,120

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,105 people
• By 2030: 35,605 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 36,047 · +2.7%
• By 2050: 35,479 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 33,325 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 28,282 · -19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.7% · R 74.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.9pp toward R · 2008: -12.6pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+45.6 2012: R+26.8 2008: R+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.56%
• Current HPI: 191.2467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $195,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-18 Coming Soon $195,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-18 Listed $195,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,163 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.