5012 Davis St · Birmingham, AL 35228

$39,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 598 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 220 Days on market

Built 1946 4,356 sqft lot $67/sqft · 30% below area Est $57k · 30% under ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment Property. Call for more details.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1946
• Listed 219 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($957 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 87 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.66%
• DSCR: 3.34
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,123
• List price: $39,999
• Delta: -29.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4713 Park Ave SW	0.73mi	2/1.0	660 (+10%)	10mo	$33,000	$50	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $22,024
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $48,675
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35228

• Home prices YoY: -3.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $957 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $460/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $335

Max offer price $39,999

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $514	-5% $503	+0% $491	+5% $480	+10% $469
Rent	-10% $416	-5% $454	+0% $491	+5% $529	+10% $567
Rate	-1.0pp $512	-0.5pp $502	base $491	+0.5pp $481	+1.0pp $471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 432-13 Fairfield, AL	1.0	1.0	555	$775	$1.40	11d	1	1.30mi
1317 Woodward Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	672	$800	$1.19	3d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,999 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,999 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,999 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,999 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,999 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,999 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,999 Active 209 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,999 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,999 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,999 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,999 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,999 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,999 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,999 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-02-08
    price $39,999 49-char remark

    Show marketing remark (49 chars)

    Great Investment Property. Call for more details.

16. 2025-12-23
    price $49,800 49-char remark

    Show marketing remark (49 chars)

    Great Investment Property. Call for more details.

17. 2025-11-25
    price $54,800 49-char remark

    Show marketing remark (49 chars)

    Great Investment Property. Call for more details.

18. 2025-11-25
    price $54,900 49-char remark

    Show marketing remark (49 chars)

    Great Investment Property. Call for more details.

19. 2025-11-14
    listed $55,000 Active 49-char remark

    Show marketing remark (49 chars)

    Great Investment Property. Call for more details.

20. 2025-10-31
    historical $55,000 49-char remark

    Show marketing remark (49 chars)

    Great Investment Property. Call for more details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $460 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $460 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$460
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$919
• − Management: −$919
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $5,585
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,340
• After-tax cash flow: $4,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 10,216
• Household income: $50,815
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 456.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% White 5%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.84%
• Current HPI: 134.8633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.47%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-27.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $39,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $49,800 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $54,800 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $54,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $55,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-10-31 Coming Soon $55,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $460 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.