23903 Creek Ridge Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1978 9,099 sqft lot $133/sqft · at area comps Est $226k · at est. $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath, single-story home featuring an open-concept living, kitchen, and dining area. The spacious living room is highlighted by a brick fireplace, creating a warm focal point for the home. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry, granite countertops, and flows seamlessly into the dining area for easy entertaining. The primary bedroom provides a comfortable retreat with an ensuite bath featuring a tub and shower combo. Two additional bedrooms are generously sized and share a full bath with a tub and shower combo. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard with a patio, along with a two-car garage for added convenience.

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Ample cabinetry
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-167/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (1.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,678
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -2.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2514 Spring Day Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-0%)	10mo	$215,000	$130	83
23715 Farm Hill Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+0%)	15mo	$189,000	$114	82
23918 Spring Mill Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,748 (+6%)	21mo	$225,000	$129	68
23803 Ironside Rd	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,822 (+10%)	14mo	$250,000	$137	61
23819 Creek Ridge Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,878 (+14%)	7mo	$210,000	$112	60
23710 Prairie Bird Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,789 (+8%)	8mo	$185,000	$103	50
23611 Blodgett Peak Trl	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+6%)	24mo	$275,000	$157	47
23130 Royal Tiger Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-7%)	21mo	$249,000	$162	39
23614 Summer Pine Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,467 (-11%)	12mo	$240,000	$164	38
23510 Treeline Bluff Trl	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,892 (+14%)	20mo	$275,000	$145	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-43,011
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-63,577
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$555 /mo · $6,659/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,302

Max offer price $217,544

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $220,000 Pending 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $220,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $220,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $220,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $220,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-03-05
   listed $220,000 Active 651-char remark

   Show marketing remark (651 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath, single-story home featuring an open-concept living, kitchen, and dining area. The spacious living room is highlighted by a brick fireplace, creating a warm focal point for the home. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry, granite countertops, and flows seamlessly into the dining area for easy entertaining. The primary bedroom provides a comfortable retreat with an ensuite bath featuring a tub and shower combo. Two additional bedrooms are generously sized and share a full bath with a tub and shower combo. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard with a patio, along with a two-car garage for added convenience.

7. 2025-12-26
   historical
8. 2025-07-17
   listed $240,000 Active
9. 2022-08-09
   soldstatus
10. 2022-08-05
    soldstatus Sold
11. 2022-07-07
    status Pending
12. 2022-07-01
    status Active
13. 2022-06-15
    historical
14. 2022-06-10
    price $233,000
15. 2022-05-26
    status Active
16. 2022-05-19
    status Pending
17. 2022-04-29
    price $243,000
18. 2022-04-07
    price $247,000
19. 2022-03-21
    listed $255,000 Active
20. 2022-03-07
    soldstatus
21. 2007-07-17
    historical
22. 2007-06-01
    listed $99,000
23. 2003-10-21
    soldstatus
24. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,659 · $555/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,659 · $555/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$6,659
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,193
• − Management: −$2,193
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$882
• After-tax cash flow: $715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+122.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-07-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-06-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-06-10 Price Changed $233,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-29 Price Changed $243,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-07 Price Changed $247,000 HARMLS
• 2022-03-21 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2022-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-06-01 Listed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2003-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,659 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.