17200 S La Villita Rd #55 · Sahuarita, AZ 85629

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Manufactured · 37 Days on market

Built 1973 Excellent condition 8,625 sqft lot Est $119k · at est. $580/mo HOA · 26% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * MH HOME IS BEING SOLD WITH THE LAND BEING LEASED * * MOUNTAIN VIEWS, PINE TREES, & LAND! This completely modernly updated home is like NEW, it has been immaculately kept, has been FULLY remodeled, & it is well taken care of. With plenty of parking that is accessed directly from La villita rd, a recently re-built stairs, mature trees, & situated in nearly . 2 acres. Inside you have a spacious, bright, & open home. Some highlights include new dual-pane windows, new roof, new AC/Heating, vaulted ceilings, fresh paint, premium flooring, & skylights. With a large galley way kitchen that has new SS appliances, new sky blue cabinetry, black pulls, and beautiful qua

Key facts

• Premium flooring
• New ac heating
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• NEW DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC HEATING
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• PREMIUM FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: Tucson - MH
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Has association (Los Arboles); Monthly HOA fee of $580; HOA covers common area maintenance, sewer, and water; Community park; Walking trails

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Smoke detectors; Security lights
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Siding and steel frame construction; Built-up and shingle roof; Built in year not specified
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Shed(s); Chain link and shared fencing; Decorative gravel; Shrubs; Corner lot; Cul-de-sac; North/South exposure; Chip-and-seal road

Interior

• Kitchen: Exhaust fan; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric range; Lazy Susan; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; High ceilings; Skylights; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.8% in Sahuarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#43 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sahuarita Unified District (4411) (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #63 of 249 in AZ (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wrightson Ridge K-8 School (math 25% / reading 41%, grade F, #498 of 1,109 statewide, top 45%, 795 students, 47% FRL); Sahuarita Middle School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #65 of 218 statewide, top 30%, 579 students, 40% FRL); Sahuarita High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #212 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 1,146 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 444 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.18%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,580
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17200 S La Villita #20	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	14mo	$130,000	$77	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,483
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $7,491
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85629

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$580
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,784

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16415 S Paseo La Daga Sahuarita, AZ	4.0	3.0	2162	$2,300	$1.06	43d	1	1.05mi
958 W Calle Las Varitas Sahuarita, AZ	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,199	$1.50	3d	1	1.07mi
18022 S Avenida de Augusto Green Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	2230	$1,750	$0.78	23d	1	1.12mi
836 W Calle Falerno Sahuarita, AZ	4.0	2.0	1915	$2,175	$1.14	3d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $580 · $6,960/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   historical Active Contingent
3. 2026-04-01
   listed $120,000 Active
4. 2026-03-19
   price $135,000
5. 2026-03-18
   historical
6. 2026-02-19
   price $129,990
7. 2026-01-27
   listed $139,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,161
• − Management: −$2,161
• − HOA: −$6,960
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,118
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$748
• After-tax cash flow: $3,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This completely modernly updated and well-maintained manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious, bright, and open floor plan with new appliances, flooring, and systems. The property is situated on nearly 2 acres with mountain views and mature trees, making it an ideal location for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and can be a selling point for buyers.
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Saves energy and can be a selling point for buyers.
• Both Add a smart security system — Enhances safety and can be a selling point for buyers.
• Both Add a smart lighting system — Saves energy and can be a selling point for buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and can be a selling point for buyers. ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Saves energy and can be a selling point for buyers. ↑
• Both Add a smart security system — Enhances safety and can be a selling point for buyers. ↑
• Both Add a smart lighting system — Saves energy and can be a selling point for buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sahuarita Unified District (4411)
• NCES district ID: 0407300
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $63,564
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5072
• State rank: #63 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sahuarita

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #8414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sahuarita, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 31,668
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,668
• Household income: $109,253
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 220.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 17% Black 2% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.38%
• Current HPI: 234.6422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.31%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-01 Listed $120,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $135,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-18 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $129,990 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-27 Listed $139,990 MLSSAZ