997 E 394th Rd · Bolivar, MO 65613

$149,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Other public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2001 5.00 ac lot $96/sqft · 47% below area Est $293k · 49% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning views, Pomme De Terre lake is minutes away, these five acres are eager to be the site of the perfect dream home. Remodel the existing structure or rebuild. There's a lot to work with on five acres! Gently rolling hill. Some trees. Recently cleaned of all overgrowth and shrub trees!!! Ready for your building dreams! Located across from The Berry Patch! House plans available.

Key facts

• Gently rolling hill
• Pomme de terre lake
• Five acres

Tags

• POMME DE TERRE LAKE
• FIVE ACRES
• GENTLY ROLLING HILL
• SOME TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.0% in Bolivar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#215 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bolivar R-I (town): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #101 of 324 in MO (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,355 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.39%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,498
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -48.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-19,051
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,052
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65613

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $415/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,118

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $126	+0% $83	+5% $41	+10% $-1
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $35	+0% $83	+5% $132	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $122	base $83	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    price $149,900 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Stunning views, Pomme De Terre lake is minutes away, these five acres are eager to be the site of the perfect dream home. Remodel the existing structure or rebuild. There's a lot to work with on five acres! Gently rolling hill. Some trees. Recently cleaned of all overgrowth and shrub trees!!! Ready for your building dreams! Located across from The Berry Patch! House plans available.

16. 2026-03-25
    listed $160,000 Active 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Stunning views, Pomme De Terre lake is minutes away, these five acres are eager to be the site of the perfect dream home. Remodel the existing structure or rebuild. There's a lot to work with on five acres! Gently rolling hill. Some trees. Recently cleaned of all overgrowth and shrub trees!!! Ready for your building dreams! Located across from The Berry Patch! House plans available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $415 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,454 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,039/yr (+$87/mo · 250.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$415
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,175
• − Management: −$1,175
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,589
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$381
• After-tax cash flow: $1,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolivar R-I
• NCES district ID: 2905370
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,332
• Composite: 37.7/100
• National rank: #4359
• State rank: #101 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bolivar

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #10664

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 17,666 people
• City population: 17,666
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 17,666
• Household income: $59,172
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 328.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,229 people
• By 2030: 31,227 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 31,104 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 30,553 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 29,332 · -6.1%
• By 2100: 26,387 · -15.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.6% · R 80.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -32.1pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.5 2016: R+56.9 2012: R+43.2 2008: R+32.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.90%
• Current HPI: 251.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $149,900 SOMO
• 2026-03-25 Listed $160,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $415 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.