1223 N Fellows St · Ottumwa, IA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $902 – $1,676
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 105°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +19.4/30.0
- DSCR +6.1/10.0
- 1% rule +4.5/10.0
- Schools +4.3/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- ARV discount +0.0/15.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$109,500
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Move in ready! 2 bedrooms and 1 bath and a full basement. New paint inside and all new flooring. Close to the hospital and shopping. This is a must see! Kitchen appliances and washer and dryer.
Key facts
- Kitchen appliances
- Washer and dryer
- Full basement
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (5.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.6% in Ottumwa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 80/100 on livability (#91 in IA, #1,900 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, employment D-.
- Ottumwa Community School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #277 of 289 in IA (top 96%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Evans Middle School (math 45% / reading 53%, grade C-, #219 of 246 statewide, top 90%, 1,047 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Wapello County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $757 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Wapello County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $15k; list at $110k implies a 635% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.95% ✗
- Cap rate
- 7.62%
- Cash-on-cash
- 4.75%
- DSCR
- 1.21
- GRM
- 8.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $92,035
- List price
- $109,500
- Delta
- 18.98%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 608 N Jefferson St | 0.50mi | 2/1.0 | 728 (+1%) | 10mo | $119,900 | $165 | 67 |
| 1306 Center Street Pl | 0.67mi | 2/1.0 | 816 (+13%) | 23mo | $180,000 | $221 | 27 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -8.9%
- Equity multiple
- 0.67×
- Total profit
- $-10,038
- Equity at exit
- $16,327
- IRR
- 0.5%
- Equity multiple
- 1.04×
- Total profit
- $1,125
- Equity at exit
- $9,468
Cash invested: $30,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Iowa
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 52501
- Active inventory
- 192
- Price-to-rent
- 8.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,038 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$574
- Tax from tax record
- −$79 /mo · $944/yr
- Insurance
- −$46
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$218
- Net cashflow
- $121
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $183 | -5% $152 | +0% $121 | +5% $90 | +10% $59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $39 | -5% $80 | +0% $121 | +5% $162 | +10% $203 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $176 | -0.5pp $149 | base $121 | +0.5pp $93 | +1.0pp $64 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $27,375
- Closing costs
- $3,285
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 13 events
-
2026-06-08status $109,500 Pending 76 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $109,500 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $109,500 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $109,500 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $109,500 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $109,500 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $109,500 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $109,500 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-04-21price $109,500 195-char remark
Show marketing remark (195 chars)
Move in ready! 2 bedrooms and 1 bath and a full basement. New paint inside and all new flooring. Close to the hospital and shopping. This is a must see! Kitchen appliances and washer and dryer.
-
2026-03-23$119,500 Active 195-char remark
Show marketing remark (195 chars)
Move in ready! 2 bedrooms and 1 bath and a full basement. New paint inside and all new flooring. Close to the hospital and shopping. This is a must see! Kitchen appliances and washer and dryer.
-
2014-11-21soldstatus $14,900 79-char remark
Show marketing remark (79 chars)
2 Bedroom House Close To Hospital With Off Street Parking. Basement Needs Work.
-
2013-12-23$19,000 79-char remark
Show marketing remark (79 chars)
2 Bedroom House Close To Hospital With Off Street Parking. Basement Needs Work.
-
2006-02-24soldstatus $40,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $944 · $79/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,332 · $111/mo
- Expected delta
- +$388/yr (+$32/mo · 41.1%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $12,453
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,134
- − Property taxes
- −$944
- − Insurance
- −$548
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$996
- − Management
- −$996
- − Depreciation
- −$3,185
- Taxable loss
- −$350
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$84
- After-tax cash flow
- $1,540/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Ottumwa Community School District
- NCES district ID
- 1922110
- Math proficiency
- 50% ▼ -9.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 54% ▲ 1.00%
- Median HH income
- $39,864
- Composite
- 43.46/100
- National rank
- #3004
- State rank
- #277 of 289 in IA
Livability — Ottumwa
- Score
- 80/100
- State rank
- #91
- US rank
- #1900
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Ottumwa, IA
- Population (ZIP)
- 30,341
Population outlook (Wapello County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 35,472 people
- By 2030
- 35,563 · +0.3%
- By 2040
- 36,083 · +1.7%
- By 2050
- 37,287 · +5.1%
- By 2075
- 43,898 · +23.8%
- By 2100
- 52,973 · +49.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (74%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 9%
- Common ancestry
- Iranian 4% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
- Foreign-born
- 11% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Wapello
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.6% · R 65.0% · Other 1.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -45.0pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -31.4pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+23.6 2016: R+20.8 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+13.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -94.66%
- Current HPI
- 174.6021
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.48%
- F500 in state
- 4
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 1 | $16B |
|
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| Retail / Convenience | 1 | $15B |
|
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Price history
+173.8% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-21 Price Changed $109,500 IAR
- 2026-03-23 Listed $119,500 IAR
- 2014-11-21 Sold (MLS) $14,900 IAR
- 2013-12-23 Listed $19,000 IAR
- 2006-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
Property tax history
-1.1%/yrLatest (2025): $944 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…