19 County Road 641 · Kenefick, TX 77535

$129,987

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 626 Days on market

Built 1996 1.53 ac lot ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Want some space? Great place to raise your kids or horses, lots of land to do with whatever you would like. This beautiful tree lined shaded lot gives you almost an acre and a half to play with. Double wide manufactured home with a split floor plan gives everyone plenty of space with both formal living and den and formal dining and room in the kitchen to create a breakfast area. With so many positive qualities you need to come out and see for yourself all that you could do. Call your Realtor today to schedule a private viewing.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• 1.53 acre lot
• Built 1996

Tags

• TREE LINED SHADED LOT
• DOUBLE WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has additional parcels
• Financial info: Full ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Road access via asphalt, dirt and gravel surfaces
• Utilities: Well water; Aerobic septic and septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Faces northwest; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1996; Aluminum and vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Private yard; Backs to greenbelt/park; Cleared and wooded parcel(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 9); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 10); Den on the first floor (approx. 19 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Kitchen and dining area combined; Pantry; Separate shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $592 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.1% in Kenefick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,376 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1209 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 626 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,388 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 626 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.52%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $16,671
• Equity at exit: $19,381

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $63,185
• Equity at exit: $11,239

Cash invested: $36,396 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1209
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,887 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,958/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $592

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,138

Max offer price $129,987

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,497
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,987 Active 626 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,987 Active 625 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,987 Active 624 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,987 Active 623 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,987 Active 621 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,987 Active 620 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,987 Active 617 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,987 Active 616 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,987 Active 615 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,987 Active 612 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,987 Active 610 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,987 Active 609 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,987 Active 608 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    status Active
15. 2026-04-17
    price $129,987
16. 2026-04-09
    status Pending
17. 2026-03-24
    status Pending
18. 2025-10-29
    price $149,987
19. 2025-09-29
    status Active
20. 2025-06-26
    status Pending
21. 2025-02-16
    price $169,987
22. 2024-12-27
    price $174,987
23. 2024-06-19
    listed $178,987 Active
24. 2023-10-31
    historical
25. 2023-04-26
    listed $197,500 Active
26. 2006-05-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,958 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$420/yr (+$35/mo · 21.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,281
• − Property taxes: −$1,958
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
• − Management: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$3,781
• Taxable income: $5,354
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,285
• After-tax cash flow: $5,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kenefick

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1376
• US rank: #23693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-34.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $129,987 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $149,987 HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-02-16 Price Changed $169,987 HARMLS
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed $174,987 HARMLS
• 2024-06-19 Listed $178,987 HARMLS
• 2023-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-04-26 Listed $197,500 HARMLS
• 2006-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,958 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.