40 Potic Creek Rd · South Cairo, NY 12051

$90,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1955 0.70 ac lot $121/sqft · 44% below area Est $161k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Opportunity! Value-add opportunity on approximately 0.70 acres with wonderful views of the scenic Potic Creek. This one-bedroom, one-bath home features a vaulted-ceiling living room, galley kitchen with dining area, and a straightforward footprint ideal for renovation or reconfiguration. Situated on a private deeded road, offering a quiet setting while remaining minutes from the Town of Coxsackie and convenient access to the NYS Thruway. Approximately 2.5 hours to NYC and 30 minutes to Albany. Subject property does not have a functioning septic system; replacement septic system site plans are included. Strong potential for resale, short-term rental, or long-term hold in a desirable Hudson Valley location. Property sold as-is.

Key facts

• Quiet setting
• 0.70 acres
• Private deeded road

Tags

• 0.70 ACRES
• 52 FEET OF FRONTAGE
• PRIVATE DEEDED ROAD
• QUIET SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $614 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Coxsackie-Athens Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #384 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $90k implies a 283% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.25%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,725
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -44.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $88,193
• Equity at exit: $81,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.09×
• Total profit: $229,065
• Equity at exit: $174,850

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12051

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,991/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $614

Break-even live

Break-even rent $855

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    price $90,000 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Investor Opportunity! Value-add opportunity on approximately 0.70 acres with wonderful views of the scenic Potic Creek. This one-bedroom, one-bath home features a vaulted-ceiling living room, galley kitchen with dining area, and a straightforward footprint ideal for renovation or reconfiguration. Situated on a private deeded road, offering a quiet setting while remaining minutes from the Town of Coxsackie and convenient access to the NYS Thruway. Approximately 2.5 hours to NYC and 30 minutes to Albany. Subject property does not have a functioning septic system; replacement septic system site plans are included. Strong potential for resale, short-term rental, or long-term hold in a desirable Hudson Valley location. Property sold as-is.

18. 2026-04-08
    price $90,000 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Investor Opportunity! Value-add opportunity on approximately 0.70 acres with wonderful views of the scenic Potic Creek. This one-bedroom, one-bath home features a vaulted-ceiling living room, galley kitchen with dining area, and a straightforward footprint ideal for renovation or reconfiguration. Situated on a private deeded road, offering a quiet setting while remaining minutes from the Town of Coxsackie and convenient access to the NYS Thruway. Approximately 2.5 hours to NYC and 30 minutes to Albany. Subject property does not have a functioning septic system; replacement septic system site plans are included. Strong potential for resale, short-term rental, or long-term hold in a desirable Hudson Valley location. Property sold as-is.

19. 2026-02-20
    status Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Investor Opportunity! Value-add opportunity on approximately 0.70 acres with wonderful views of the scenic Potic Creek. This one-bedroom, one-bath home features a vaulted-ceiling living room, galley kitchen with dining area, and a straightforward footprint ideal for renovation or reconfiguration. Situated on a private deeded road, offering a quiet setting while remaining minutes from the Town of Coxsackie and convenient access to the NYS Thruway. Approximately 2.5 hours to NYC and 30 minutes to Albany. Subject property does not have a functioning septic system; replacement septic system site plans are included. Strong potential for resale, short-term rental, or long-term hold in a desirable Hudson Valley location. Property sold as-is.

20. 2026-02-20
    status Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Investor Opportunity! Value-add opportunity on approximately 0.70 acres with wonderful views of the scenic Potic Creek. This one-bedroom, one-bath home features a vaulted-ceiling living room, galley kitchen with dining area, and a straightforward footprint ideal for renovation or reconfiguration. Situated on a private deeded road, offering a quiet setting while remaining minutes from the Town of Coxsackie and convenient access to the NYS Thruway. Approximately 2.5 hours to NYC and 30 minutes to Albany. Subject property does not have a functioning septic system; replacement septic system site plans are included. Strong potential for resale, short-term rental, or long-term hold in a desirable Hudson Valley location. Property sold as-is.

21. 2026-02-06
    status Pending 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Investor Opportunity! Value-add opportunity on approximately 0.70 acres with wonderful views of the scenic Potic Creek. This one-bedroom, one-bath home features a vaulted-ceiling living room, galley kitchen with dining area, and a straightforward footprint ideal for renovation or reconfiguration. Situated on a private deeded road, offering a quiet setting while remaining minutes from the Town of Coxsackie and convenient access to the NYS Thruway. Approximately 2.5 hours to NYC and 30 minutes to Albany. Subject property does not have a functioning septic system; replacement septic system site plans are included. Strong potential for resale, short-term rental, or long-term hold in a desirable Hudson Valley location. Property sold as-is.

22. 2026-02-06
    historical Active Under Contract 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Investor Opportunity! Value-add opportunity on approximately 0.70 acres with wonderful views of the scenic Potic Creek. This one-bedroom, one-bath home features a vaulted-ceiling living room, galley kitchen with dining area, and a straightforward footprint ideal for renovation or reconfiguration. Situated on a private deeded road, offering a quiet setting while remaining minutes from the Town of Coxsackie and convenient access to the NYS Thruway. Approximately 2.5 hours to NYC and 30 minutes to Albany. Subject property does not have a functioning septic system; replacement septic system site plans are included. Strong potential for resale, short-term rental, or long-term hold in a desirable Hudson Valley location. Property sold as-is.

23. 2026-01-22
    listed $110,000 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Investor Opportunity! Value-add opportunity on approximately 0.70 acres with wonderful views of the scenic Potic Creek. This one-bedroom, one-bath home features a vaulted-ceiling living room, galley kitchen with dining area, and a straightforward footprint ideal for renovation or reconfiguration. Situated on a private deeded road, offering a quiet setting while remaining minutes from the Town of Coxsackie and convenient access to the NYS Thruway. Approximately 2.5 hours to NYC and 30 minutes to Albany. Subject property does not have a functioning septic system; replacement septic system site plans are included. Strong potential for resale, short-term rental, or long-term hold in a desirable Hudson Valley location. Property sold as-is.

24. 2026-01-22
    listed $110,000 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Investor Opportunity! Value-add opportunity on approximately 0.70 acres with wonderful views of the scenic Potic Creek. This one-bedroom, one-bath home features a vaulted-ceiling living room, galley kitchen with dining area, and a straightforward footprint ideal for renovation or reconfiguration. Situated on a private deeded road, offering a quiet setting while remaining minutes from the Town of Coxsackie and convenient access to the NYS Thruway. Approximately 2.5 hours to NYC and 30 minutes to Albany. Subject property does not have a functioning septic system; replacement septic system site plans are included. Strong potential for resale, short-term rental, or long-term hold in a desirable Hudson Valley location. Property sold as-is.

25. 2001-05-08
    soldstatus $23,500
26. 2000-08-15
    soldstatus $17,500
27. 1997-09-23
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,991
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $6,354
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,525
• After-tax cash flow: $5,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coxsackie-Athens Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608490
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $55,006
• Composite: 42.8/100
• National rank: #3143
• State rank: #384 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Cairo

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 601
• Population (ZIP): 5,706

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.86%
• Current HPI: 371.238
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $90,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $90,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $110,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $110,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records
• 2000-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
• 1997-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,991 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.