2319 Gill Rd · Offerman, GA 31557

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1977 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Peaceful country living with endless potential! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick ranch is tucked away on 2 private acres in Pierce County down a quiet dirt road, offering the perfect peaceful country setting while still being convenient to award-winning schools. Featuring solid brick construction and a newer roof, this home is a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their dream country retreat. The home does need work and is being sold AS-IS, with the HVAC system currently not working, but the potential is undeniable. Whether you're looking for a fixer-upper, investment property, or private homestead, this hidden gem offers privacy, space, and endless possibilit

Key facts

• Private acres
• Newer roof
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• SOLID BRICK CONSTRUCTION
• NEWER ROOF
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport
• Utilities: Utility connection points measured in feet to electric, gas, sewer, and water
• Exterior features: 2-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Total of 6 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($714/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#555 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Pierce County (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #15 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,600 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $85,411
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $248,390
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31557

• Home prices YoY: 12.8%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $434/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,121

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $102	+0% $60	+5% $17	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $12	+0% $60	+5% $107	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $98	base $60	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $150,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-05-27
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $434 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$946/yr (+$79/mo · 217.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$434
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,148
• − Management: −$1,148
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$455
• After-tax cash flow: $1,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pierce County
• NCES district ID: 1304140
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,523
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3097
• State rank: #15 of 174 in GA

Livability — Offerman

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #24480

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 23
• Population (ZIP): 3,717

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,690 people
• By 2030: 19,886 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 20,140 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 20,113 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 19,166 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 16,296 · -17.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.5) · D 11.2% · R 88.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -62.5pp · 2024: -77.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.5 2020: R+75.1 2016: R+74.0 2012: R+66.4 2008: R+62.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.95%
• Current HPI: 289.3963
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $150,000 GIAR

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $434 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.