207 Lucaya Loop #207 · Four Corners, FL 33897

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,227 sqft · Condo · 2 Days on market

Built 2003

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This has to be the cleanest and best presented unit in all of the Bahama Bay Resort. Fully furnished with many upgrades including modern furniture, large screen TV. high end carpet, 2 king beds with all the mattresses top of the line memory foam. Located steps from the clubhouse on the second floor in building 6 the unit number is 207.

Key facts

• Updated condominium
• Fully furnished
• Turnkey opportunity

Tags

• UPDATED CONDOMINIUM
• FULLY FURNISHED
• ACROSS FROM CLUBHOUSE
• METICULOUSLY UPGRADED
• TURNKEY OPPORTUNITY
• BRIGHT OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Taxes listed separately (not included here)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated; Furnished: Yes
• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fees (association: First Service Residential / Lynne Bishop); Association amenities include fitness center, gated entry, playground, pool, tennis courts, and recreational facilities; Association fees cover cable TV, pool, insurance, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, security, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking (no assigned/covered parking indicated)
• Security: Gated community; Community security included in association services
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Condominium; One-level unit; Located on 2nd floor; Faces southwest
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building 6 (unit in building numbered 6); Built area consistent with a multi-story community
• Exterior features: Balcony; Sliding doors; Sidewalks and paved areas; Private lot elements; Landscaped with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Freezer; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Window treatments / blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $213 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $259k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,528 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-30,058
• Equity at exit: $67,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-35,424
• Equity at exit: $75,051

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33897

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 646
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,085 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $238,377

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-53	+0% $-143	+5% $-232	+10% $-322
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-225	+0% $-143	+5% $-60	+10% $22
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-77	base $-143	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
226 Hillcrest Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1488	$2,500	$1.68	24d	1	0.10mi
304 New Providence Promenade Unit 304 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,495	$1.22	24d	1	0.15mi
603 New Providence Promenade #603 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,550	$1.26	24d	1	0.22mi
515 Corso Ln Davenport, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1402	$2,495	$1.78	4d	13	0.25mi
309 Catfish Dr E Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,895	$1.30	24d	1	0.56mi
1301 Tuscan Hills Blvd Unit 9406 1 Davenport, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,200	$1.94	24d	1	0.59mi
50989 Highway 27 #108 Davenport, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	22d	1	0.63mi
774 Chelsea Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	988	$1,750	$1.77	24d	1	0.68mi
807 Chelsea Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1076	$1,450	$1.35	24d	1	0.72mi
183 Ashbourne Way Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,200	$2.12	4d	35	0.74mi
222 Bexley Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1313	$2,000	$1.52	24d	1	0.78mi
2010 Limetta DR Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$2,429	$2.06	4d	15	0.82mi
315 Allison Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,400	$2.03	24d	1	0.84mi
1492 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,950	$1.36	15d	1	0.95mi
1492 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,995	$1.39	24d	1	0.95mi
1556 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,950	$1.42	4d	1	0.96mi
237 Somerset Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	1.0	1330	$1,900	$1.43	24d	1	0.96mi
904 Charo Pkwy #533 Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1437	$1,795	$1.25	15d	1	1.05mi
904 Charo Pkwy #517 Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	24d	1	1.05mi
1316 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1489	$2,050	$1.38	24d	1	1.10mi
9055 Treasure Trove Ln Kissimmee, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1572	$1,900	$1.21	4d	2	1.10mi
9055 Treasure Trove Ln Kissimmee, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1572	$1,900	$1.21	5d	2	1.10mi
631 Washington Palm Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1387	$1,450	$1.05	24d	1	1.13mi
333 Terra Lago St Unit 1031923P Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1453	$2,170	$1.49	3d	1	1.19mi
3050 Pirates Retreat Ct #208 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1445	$1,600	$1.11	3d	1	1.22mi
3060 Pirates Retreat Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1445	$1,875	$1.30	8d	2	1.26mi
400 Australian Way Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,600	$1.19	15d	1	1.29mi
217 Australian Way Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,750	$1.45	3d	1	1.30mi
1042 Calabria Ave Unit 1261192P Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1485	$5,169	$3.48	15d	1	1.30mi
2929 Fan Palm Dr Unit 1 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1090	$1,600	$1.47	15d	1	1.30mi
2929 Fan Palm Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1090	$1,600	$1.47	15d	1	1.30mi
623 Coconut Palm Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	24d	1	1.31mi
2918 Fan Palm Dr Unit Main Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	24d	1	1.33mi
761 Caribbean Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	4d	1	1.34mi
564 Orchid Dr Unit A Davenport, FL	2.0	2.0	1348	$1,500	$1.11	24d	1	1.35mi
711 Caribbean Dr Unit Main Unit Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	24d	1	1.36mi
515 Orchid Dr Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,650	$1.22	24d	1	1.37mi
1000 Western Breeze CIR Unit 3-410 Davenport, FL	2.0	2.0	1185	$2,360	$1.99	4d	1	1.39mi
8836 Dunes Ct #13306 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,650	$1.32	24d	1	1.40mi
402 Orchid Dr Unit Main Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 689-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $259,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,002
• − Management: −$2,002
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$6,203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,489
• After-tax cash flow: $-222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Four Corners

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #8218

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Four Corners, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,159
• Household income: $70,982
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 926.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 21% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 236.2905
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.69%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+13.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-16 Sold (MLS) $93,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-21 Price Changed $94,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-27 Listed $102,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-22 Listed $228,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid