4903 Kestis Ln · China Grove, TX 78263

$342,790

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,414 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $142/sqft · 28% below area Est $473k · 28% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

None

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: GARDEN GROVE
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $300 annually; Community amenities include a pool and a park/playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water service by SAWS; Sewer service by SAWS; Gas supplied by CPS; Electricity supplied by CPS; Water system; HERS rated; Energy Star certified; Every Furrow irrigation control (green feature)
• Home design: New construction by Coventry Homes; Front of home faces east; Accessible/adaptive home; Bathroom and bedroom on first floor
• Construction: Brick, stucco, and siding exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built as new (approximate age: 0)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Privacy fence; Sprinkler system; Double pane windows; Gutters; Street paved with curbs and sidewalks; Fire hydrant within 500 ft.; City street

Interior

• Kitchen: Island kitchen; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Stove/Range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker connection; Vent fan
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with walk-in closet and full bath; Bedroom sizes include: 14 x 14 (master), 11 x 10, 13 x 10, 11 x 10, 11 x 12
• Flooring: Carpeting; Ceramic tile; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only and double vanity (8 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (1 unit)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Washer and dryer connections; Self-cleaning oven, microwave, stove/range; Gas cooking; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker connection; Vent fan; Smoke alarm; Gas water heater; Garage door opener; In-wall pest control; Water softener plumbing; Private garbage service; Living/Dining room combination; Island kitchen; Game room; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Laundry on main level; Walk-in closets; Attic with pull-down stairs; Attic with radiant barrier decking; All window coverings remain
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer connections; Laundry on main level; Utility room approx. 8 x 6

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $343k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in China Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#873 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Crest El (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 674 students, 72% FRL); East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 289 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($333k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,500 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $473,455
• List price: $342,790
• Delta: -27.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4940 Hawkwell Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (-3%)	4mo	$334,524	$143	81
5030 Hastings Way	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (-3%)	4mo	$326,525	$140	80
4948 Hawkwell Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (-3%)	8mo	$338,820	$145	77
4947 Hawkwell Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,198 (-9%)	4mo	$325,740	$148	71
8408 Ingress Ave	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-9%)	3mo	$304,990	$139	70
4727 Fireweed Ct	0.14mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-9%)	3mo	$304,990	$139	68
4707 Kinsley Way	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-9%)	6mo	$314,990	$144	68
8307 Ingress Ave	0.10mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-9%)	9mo	$271,100	$124	66
5011 Bonniecrest	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,125 (-12%)	9mo	$475,000	$224	32
5018 Bonniecrest	0.75mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,592 (+7%)	22mo	$529,990	$204	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-72,362
• Equity at exit: $51,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-84,508
• Equity at exit: $29,638

Cash invested: $95,981 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78263

• Home prices YoY: -8.1%
• Active inventory: 289
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,798
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$428 /mo · $5,142/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,030

Max offer price $304,459

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-28	-5% $-146	+0% $-265	+5% $-383	+10% $-502
Rent	-10% $-478	-5% $-371	+0% $-265	+5% $-158	+10% $-52
Rate	-1.0pp $-92	-0.5pp $-178	base $-265	+0.5pp $-354	+1.0pp $-444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,698
• Closing costs: $10,284
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5330 Kody Crk San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2251	$2,695	$1.20	25d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $342,790 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $342,790 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $342,790 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $342,790 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $342,790 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $342,790 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $342,790 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $342,790 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $342,790 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $342,790 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $342,790 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $342,790 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $342,790 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $342,790 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $342,790 New 524-char remark
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $342,790 Active 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    None

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,202
• − Property taxes: −$5,142
• − Insurance: −$1,714
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,587
• − Management: −$2,587
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$9,972
• Taxable loss: −$9,164
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,199
• After-tax cash flow: $-979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good balance of space and style, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — China Grove

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #873
• US rank: #15748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,514

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 43% Two or more races 24% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.29%
• Current HPI: 322.4738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $342,790 LERA
• 2026-05-12 Listed $342,790 Zillow