15940 Furlong Loop Loop · Foley, AL 36535

$278,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,700 sqft lot Garage $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. An inviting open-concept floorplan encourages simple transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, just steps from a full bathroom, and a luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Owner's suite
• 7,700 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• 42 INCH KITCHEN CABINETS

🏗️ New construction. The $278,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $279,714.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-322 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Foley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Foley Middle School (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 257 statewide, top 68%, 783 students, 82% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $208,742 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.93%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,714
• List price: $278,490
• Delta: -0.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15390 Planters Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,732 (0%)	2mo	$271,490	$157	91
15334 Planters Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,732 (0%)	6mo	$289,990	$167	89
15295 Planters Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,810 (+4%)	4mo	$277,990	$154	84
15306 Planters Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,810 (+4%)	6mo	$284,990	$157	82
15362 Planters Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,810 (+4%)	6mo	$284,990	$157	81
15294 Tiller Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,569 (-9%)	2mo	$262,990	$168	74
16129 Furlong Loop	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+9%)	6mo	$289,990	$153	71
15416 Planters Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+9%)	5mo	$281,680	$149	71
15417 Furlong Loop	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+9%)	6mo	$279,990	$148	68
15636 Rushbrook Ct	0.46mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+9%)	4mo	$279,990	$148	58
8952 Sherman Road Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,493 (-14%)	0mo	$285,000	$191	57
8409 Shannon's Mill Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-15%)	6mo	$254,980	$173	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-68,247
• Equity at exit: $41,706

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-95,507
• Equity at exit: $24,185

Cash invested: $78,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.6 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $269,990 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 289 d
• This list price: 56% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,196/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,495

Max offer price $233,124

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-129	-5% $-225	+0% $-322	+5% $-419	+10% $-515
Rent	-10% $-487	-5% $-404	+0% $-322	+5% $-240	+10% $-157
Rate	-1.0pp $-181	-0.5pp $-251	base $-322	+0.5pp $-394	+1.0pp $-468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,928
• Closing costs: $8,391
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15417 Furlong Loop Foley, AL	4.0	2.5	1891	$2,100	$1.11	62d	1	0.21mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $450Association covers management and grounds maintenanceTransfer fees apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached double garage (2 covered spaces), approximately 18 x 20
• Utilities: Water and general utilities: Riviera UtilitiesElectric: Baldwin EMCSewer via local utilities (no waterfront)
• Home design: Single-story homeOne levelNew construction
• Construction: Vinyl sidingFortified-Gold constructionDimensional roofSlab foundationBuilt by the builder
• Exterior features: Less than 1 acre lotNo waterfrontAssociation maintains grounds

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric range
• Bedrooms: Main floor primary bedroom with walk-in closetBedroom 2 approximately 10 x 10Bedroom 3 approximately 11 x 14Bedroom 4 approximately 11 x 14
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom has a separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: No fireplaceTermite contract
• Laundry & utility: Utilities served by Riviera UtilitiesElectric service: Baldwin EMC

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $278,490 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $278,490 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $278,490 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $278,490 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $278,490 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $278,490 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $278,490 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $278,490 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $278,490 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $278,490 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $278,490 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $278,490 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $278,490 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $278,490 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $278,490 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $278,490 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $278,490 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $278,490 Active 49 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $278,490 Active 48 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $278,490 Active 47 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $278,490 Active 46 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $278,490 Active 45 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $278,490 Active 44 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $278,490 Active 43 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $278,490 Active 42 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $278,490 Active 41 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $278,490 Active 40 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $278,490 Active 39 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $278,490 Active 38 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $278,490 Active 37 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $278,490 Active 36 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $278,490 Active 35 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $278,490 Active 34 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $278,490 Active 33 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $278,490 Active 32 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $278,490 Active 31 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $278,490 Active 30 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $278,490 Active 28 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $278,490 Active 26 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $278,490 Active 25 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $278,490 Active 23 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $278,490 Active 22 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $278,490 Active 21 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $278,490 Active 20 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $278,490 Active 19 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    pricedays on market $278,490 Active 17 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $281,490 Active 16 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $281,490 Active 14 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $281,490 Active 13 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $281,490 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,668
• − Property taxes: −$4,196
• − Insurance: −$1,399
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,004
• − Management: −$2,004
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$8,137
• Taxable loss: −$8,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,115
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious floor plan with four bedrooms and two bathrooms, making it ideal for both homeowners and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia School F AL #311/627 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Foley Middle School F AL #172/257 Nat'l #10,902/14,009 High Foley High School F AL #118/305 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Foley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 248,264 people
• City population: 40,628
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $450Association covers management and grounds maintenanceTransfer fees apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached double garage (2 covered spaces), approximately 18 x 20
• Utilities: Water and general utilities: Riviera UtilitiesElectric: Baldwin EMCSewer via local utilities (no waterfront)
• Home design: Single-story homeOne levelNew construction
• Construction: Vinyl sidingFortified-Gold constructionDimensional roofSlab foundationBuilt by the builder
• Exterior features: Less than 1 acre lotNo waterfrontAssociation maintains grounds

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric range
• Bedrooms: Main floor primary bedroom with walk-in closetBedroom 2 approximately 10 x 10Bedroom 3 approximately 11 x 14Bedroom 4 approximately 11 x 14
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom has a separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: No fireplaceTermite contract
• Laundry & utility: Utilities served by Riviera UtilitiesElectric service: Baldwin EMC

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-24 Price Changed $277,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $278,490 BCAR
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $278,490 Zillow
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $281,490 Zillow
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $281,490 BCAR
• 2026-05-28 Listed $291,490 Zillow
• 2026-05-27 Listed $291,490 BCAR