12787 Parkway Estates Dr · Maryland Heights, MO 63146

$335,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1977 10,441 sqft lot Est $368k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

GREAT HOUSE!!! Welcome to 12787 Parkway Estates Dr, a wonderful opportunity in the highly sought-after Parkway School District!!! This home offers great curb appeal, a spacious layout, and the kind of indoor and outdoor living space buyers are always looking for. Inside, you’ll find a bright and inviting living area, a great flow for everyday living and entertaining, and plenty of room to spread out and make the home your own. The backyard gives you space to relax, host, garden, play, or enjoy quiet evenings outside, while the location keeps you close to parks, shopping, restaurants, schools, highways, and everything West County has to offer. Whether you are looking for a comfortable

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (upper level); 1 half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement with 8+ ft poured concrete; Fireplace in the family room; 14 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ross Elem. (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 385 students, 32% FRL); Northeast Middle (math 33% / reading 47%, grade F, #185 of 391 statewide, top 48%, 703 students, 24% FRL); North High (math 35% / reading 70%, grade C-, #89 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,074 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 14% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Parkway C-2 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,589 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.54%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $368,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12725 Bennington Common Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,055 (-1%)	1mo	$299,900	$146	86
1803 Seven Pnes	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,120 (+2%)	2mo	$365,000	$172	73
1834 Chelmsford Ct	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,000 (-4%)	7mo	$359,900	$180	71
1770 Round Robin Ct	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,099 (+1%)	1mo	$325,000	$155	70
1956 Lakehurst Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,120 (+2%)	5mo	$464,900	$219	66
12934 Ballantine Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,992 (-4%)	2mo	$424,900	$213	64
12558 Westport Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,977 (-5%)	5mo	$350,000	$177	61
12597 Fee Fee Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-6%)	4mo	$270,000	$139	60
12910 Autumn View Dr	0.65mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,019 (-3%)	5mo	$257,500	$128	54
12664 Markaire Dr	0.62mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,275 (+9%)	1mo	$365,000	$160	48
1559 Fontana Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,887 (-9%)	5mo	$334,500	$177	46
1503 Papillon Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,774 (-15%)	3mo	$379,900	$214	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $152,940
• Equity at exit: $301,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $455,790
• Equity at exit: $650,831

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63146

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,346 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$312 /mo · $3,742/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,795

Max offer price $272,304

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-165	-5% $-260	+0% $-355	+5% $-450	+10% $-545
Rent	-10% $-540	-5% $-448	+0% $-355	+5% $-262	+10% $-170
Rate	-1.0pp $-186	-0.5pp $-270	base $-355	+0.5pp $-442	+1.0pp $-530

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12806 Willowyck Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,500	$1.72	45d	1	0.05mi
1308 Palm Ridge Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,400	$1.45	0d	1	0.64mi
12545 Markaire Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–4.0	1420	$2,695	$1.90	12d	5	0.75mi
12533 Starspur Ln Saint Louis, MO	4.0	4.0	1982	$2,795	$1.41	5d	1	0.84mi
12465 Larkwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,131	$1.36	0d	1	0.88mi
1638 Prestonpark Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1734	$2,610	$1.51	45d	1	1.15mi
1731 Wishingwell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	2729	$2,701	$0.99	0d	1	1.33mi
2050 Lakerun Ct Maryland Heights, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1213	$2,180	$1.80	0d	14	1.44mi
815 Montmartre Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1862	$2,300	$1.24	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $335,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 693-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $335,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,742 · $312/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,742 · $312/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$3,742
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,252
• − Management: −$2,252
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$10,281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,467
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkway C-2
• NCES district ID: 2923580
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $83,551
• Composite: 50.5/100
• National rank: #1851
• State rank: #18 of 324 in MO

Livability — Maryland Heights

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #6808

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 21,924
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,678
• Household income: $84,756
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.10%
• Current HPI: 711.49
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $335,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1981-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,742 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.