413 Cologne Ave · Plattekill, NY 12589

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,482 sqft · Manufactured

Built 1983 Est $153k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Some work being done, available 10/9. Sweet home is waiting for you with so many updates!! As the last house on the street, there is open land on your right side! Lots of level yard to enjoy! Kitchen has gorgeous Quartz counters over clean white cabinets! Lovely tile kitchen and bathroom floors! In the living room is a wood fireplace! Windows, floors & roof have been replaced. The walk in shower is done in gorgeous tile! Walls have been sheet rocked & lighting is updated with mostly LEDs and Smart lights. Outside there are 2 sheds, and a gazebo to enjoy!, OTHERROOMS:Laundry/Util. Room, ROOF:Asphalt Shingles, InteriorFeatures:Electric Dryer Connection, Gas Stove Connection, FLOOR

Key facts

• Built 1983

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $615 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 1.9% in Plattekill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#831 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, employment A, housing B; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallkill Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #279 of 590 in NY (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Plattekill Elementary School (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 405 students, 43% FRL); John G Borden Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 432 students, 37% FRL); Wallkill Senior High School (math 97% / reading 75%, grade A, #347 of 1,100 statewide, top 32%, 1,004 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.16%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,646
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
381 Forest Park (ellen St)	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-5%)	11mo	$182,688	$130	66
5 Depew Park	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (-2%)	7mo	$150,000	$103	62
34 Depew Park	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+13%)	22mo	$125,000	$74	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $118,142
• Equity at exit: $130,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.81×
• Total profit: $317,190
• Equity at exit: $281,703

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12589

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,046 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $615

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2023-11-16
   historical
2. 2023-09-26
   listed $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,964
• − Management: −$1,964
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $5,387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,293
• After-tax cash flow: $6,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallkill Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,323
• Composite: 49.06/100
• National rank: #2057
• State rank: #279 of 590 in NY

Livability — Plattekill

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #831
• US rank: #16115

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment A Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,639

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.97%
• Current HPI: 323.1502
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2023-11-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-26 Listed $145,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid