506 Church St · Providence, KY 42450

$57,250

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

7,405 sqft lot Est $77k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3 Bed, 1.5 Bath Investment Property Offering 1,059 sq ft, this property is a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Features include: Updated PEX plumbing in full bath & kitchen, Attached carport, Manageable layout with solid potential. Perfect for a rental, flip, or starter home project!

Key facts

• Updated pex plumbing
• Attached carport
• Manageable layout

Tags

• UPDATED PEX PLUMBING
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• MANAGEABLE LAYOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 one-quarter bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Range; Electric range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $57k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($862 rent vs $57k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#352 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Webster County (rural): math 25% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #114 of 165 in KY (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Webster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($396 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Webster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,391 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.43%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,400
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
614 Saint Bernard St	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	888 (-1%)	0mo	$74,000	$83	86
609 Langley Ave	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	783 (-13%)	14mo	$67,500	$86	60
201 S Willow St	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	875 (-3%)	10mo	$100,000	$114	58
217 N Green St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (-2%)	23mo	$30,000	$34	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $36,122
• Equity at exit: $33,835

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.61×
• Total profit: $89,878
• Equity at exit: $59,579

Cash invested: $16,030 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42450

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $862 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$300
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $204/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $432

Max offer price $57,250

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,312
• Closing costs: $1,718
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $57,250 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $57,250 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $57,250 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $57,250 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $57,250 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $57,250 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $57,250 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $57,250 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $57,250 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $57,250 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $57,250 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 317-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $57,250 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $204 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 141.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,207
• − Property taxes: −$204
• − Insurance: −$286
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$827
• − Management: −$827
• − Depreciation: −$1,665
• Taxable income: $3,324
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$798
• After-tax cash flow: $3,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster County
• NCES district ID: 2105820
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $39,542
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7600
• State rank: #114 of 165 in KY

Livability — Providence

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #16669

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence, KY
• Population (ZIP): 3,589

Population outlook (Webster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,548 people
• By 2030: 12,119 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 11,345 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 10,761 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 10,166 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 10,546 · -16.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 12% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Iranian 1% Russian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Webster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.4) · D 20.8% · R 78.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.7pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -57.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.4 2020: R+51.6 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Current HPI: 240.0686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $57,250 MHCBOR

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $204 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.