9302 Fairland Dr · Houston, TX 77051

$158,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 6,499 sqft lot $146/sqft · at area comps Est $145k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Introducing this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home ideally located in south Houston’s 77033 area, offering convenient access to Highway 288, Beltway 8, and Loop 610. The central location provides an easy commute to Downtown Houston, the Texas Medical Center, and surrounding employment hubs, making everyday travel simple and efficient. The home features a functional layout designed for comfortable living, with a washer and dryer included for added convenience. With close proximity to major roadways, shopping, dining, and local amenities, this property presents a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike. Don’t miss your chance to make this home yours.

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Not specified
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (not specified otherwise)
• Construction: Built in 1950; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Not specified
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 22 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 11226% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,212 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.61%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,736
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: 10.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9333 Fairland Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,080 (0%)	8mo	$170,000	$157	89
9329 Chesterfield Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,128 (+4%)	12mo	$150,000	$133	78
9321 Cathedral Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,204 (+12%)	4mo	$159,000	$132	74
9501 Chesterfield Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+7%)	8mo	$112,000	$97	71
3138 Sunbeam St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,091 (+1%)	7mo	$109,900	$101	69
3121 Wilmington St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,128 (+4%)	9mo	$199,900	$177	66
9510 Chesterfield Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,126 (+4%)	11mo	$199,900	$178	63
10006 Chesterfield Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,170 (+8%)	3mo	$125,000	$107	60
10205 Sierra Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,151 (+7%)	3mo	$120,000	$104	59
10010 Fairland Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,148 (+6%)	10mo	$72,000	$63	58
3034 Corksie St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,225 (+13%)	0mo	$219,900	$180	43
3030 Corksie St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,214 (+12%)	7mo	$149,250	$123	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $94,956
• Equity at exit: $142,339

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.35×
• Total profit: $280,831
• Equity at exit: $306,959

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,446/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,390

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $186	-5% $141	+0% $96	+5% $52	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-23	-5% $37	+0% $96	+5% $156	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $176	-0.5pp $137	base $96	+0.5pp $55	+1.0pp $14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9414 Heno St Unit 13 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	25d	1	0.38mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,228	$1.01	0d	3	0.49mi
4112 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	711	$700	$0.98	12d	1	0.50mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	4d	2	0.53mi
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	25d	1	0.53mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	19d	1	0.56mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	0d	2	0.58mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	45d	1	0.69mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	18d	1	0.69mi
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	45d	1	0.79mi
3137 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,802	$1.55	45d	1	0.87mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	21d	1	0.97mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,253	$3.84	0d	1	1.04mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	16d	1	1.06mi
4410 Bellfort Ave Unit 4404 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	9d	1	1.13mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	6d	1	1.22mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	14d	1	1.24mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	45d	1	1.26mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	45d	1	1.33mi
7826 Gladstone St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	760	$1,250	$1.64	0d	1	1.42mi
7823 Gladstone St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	45d	1	1.44mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $158,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on marketlisting id $158,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $1,395
15. 2026-05-13
    historical $1,395
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $160,000 Active 689-char remark
17. 2026-05-13
    historical
18. 2026-04-13
    listed $160,000 Active
19. 2026-04-13
    historical
20. 2026-04-04
    listed $1,395
21. 2026-04-03
    historical $1,399
22. 2026-04-03
    listed $170,000 Active
23. 2026-04-03
    historical
24. 2026-04-02
    price $165,000
25. 2026-03-05
    listed $1,399
26. 2026-03-04
    historical $1,399
27. 2026-03-03
    listed $169,000 Active
28. 2026-03-03
    historical
29. 2026-01-14
    listed $1,399
30. 2026-01-13
    historical $1,399
31. 2026-01-13
    listed $170,000 Active
32. 2026-01-13
    historical
33. 2026-01-06
    listed $170,000 Active
34. 2025-12-27
    price $1,399
35. 2025-12-04
    listed $1,425
36. 2025-11-24
    historical $1,450
37. 2025-11-15
    price $1,450
38. 2025-11-05
    listed $1,500
39. 2025-11-04
    historical $1,500
40. 2025-10-08
    listed $1,500
41. 2025-10-07
    historical $1,500
42. 2025-08-28
    listed $1,500
43. 2025-08-27
    historical $1,500
44. 2025-08-08
    listed $1,500
45. 2025-08-08
    historical $1,500
46. 2025-08-02
    listed $1,500
47. 2024-03-14
    historical $1,400
48. 2024-03-13
    historical
49. 2024-03-06
    listed $170,000 Active
50. 2024-02-21
    listed $1,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,446 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$446/yr (+$37/mo · 18.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$2,446
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$1,440
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$346
• After-tax cash flow: $1,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.5% since first listed

57 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed for Rent $1,395 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Rental Removed $1,395 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed for Rent $1,395 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Rental Removed $1,399 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed for Rent $1,399 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Rental Removed $1,399 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed for Rent $1,399 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Rental Removed $1,399 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $1,399 HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed for Rent $1,425 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Rental Removed $1,450 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $1,450 HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Rental Removed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Rental Removed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Rental Removed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Rental Removed $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-02 Listed for Rent $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-14 Rental Removed $1,400 HARMLS
• 2024-03-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-21 Listed for Rent $1,400 HARMLS
• 2024-02-21 Rental Removed $1,400 HARMLS
• 2024-01-19 Rental Removed $1,400 HARMLS
• 2024-01-19 Listed for Rent $1,400 HARMLS
• 2023-12-20 Listed for Rent $1,400 HARMLS
• 2019-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-03-22 Listed $51,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-04-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-04-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-02-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-02-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-01-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-12-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-12-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-12-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-11-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-11-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-11-13 Listed $55,900 HARMLS
• 1995-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,446 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.