5429 Fm 2874 · Commerce, TX 75428

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1970 0.33 ac lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just outside the city limits of Commerce, this well-maintained tenant-occupied single-wide mobile home offers comfort, convenience, and incredible versatility. Move-in ready and only minutes from East Texas A & M University, local shops, restaurants, and everything the city has to offer, this property is ideal for homeowners and investors alike. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the home offers an open-concept layout. Enjoy central heat and air, a one-car carport, a covered front porch, and a large backyard with plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, or future possibilities. Whether you're looking for a charming personal residence, a strong rental property, or even a sp

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Central heat and air
• Large backyard

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE BACKYARD
• PRIME ACCESSIBILITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential mobile home; Lot size less than 0.5 acre (approx. 0.33 acre); Subdivision: LINDLEY H C; County: Hunt; Directions provided
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, and USDA loans; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Covered parking (1 space); 1 carport space
• Security: Other security features
• Utilities: Electricity connected; No municipal utility district; No sewer
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); Attached property; Accessible approach with ramp; Metal roof; Built in 1970
• Construction: Metal roof; Preowned
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Back yard with chain link fencing; All-weather road access; No sewer service

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; Window coverings; One-level layout; Two rooms (living area and dining area)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (Other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.1% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#737 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Commerce ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #687 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Commerce El (400 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 62% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-9,185
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,221
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75428

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1814 Hunt St Unit 1805 6 Commerce, TX	2.0	1.5	872	$995	$1.14	24d	1	1.07mi
1814 Hunt St Commerce, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	715	$1,050	$1.47	1d	7	1.07mi
1814 Hunt St Unit 1809 Commerce, TX	2.0	1.5	872	$995	$1.14	44d	1	1.07mi
1814 Hunt St Unit 1303 Commerce, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$925	$1.32	44d	1	1.07mi
1618 Bois D'Arc St Unit 102 Commerce, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$895	$0.90	22d	1	1.17mi
1313 Hunt St Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	44d	1	1.43mi
1315 Oneal St Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	1007	$1,600	$1.59	1d	1	1.46mi
1315 Oneal St Unit B Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	1007	$1,275	$1.27	2d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $115,000 Active 1043-char remark
16. 2025-07-03
    historical
17. 2025-03-03
    listed $150,000 Active
18. 2025-02-15
    historical
19. 2024-08-26
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$57
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14
• After-tax cash flow: $1,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commerce ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,295
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7977
• State rank: #687 of 826 in TX

Livability — Commerce

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #737
• US rank: #13696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• City population: 11,531
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,531
• Household income: $51,424
• Rent vs Own: 48.1% rent · 51.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 546.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 14% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.08%
• Current HPI: 289.0436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-03-03 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-08-26 Listed $150,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $220 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.