116 Willowbend Loop · Mabank, TX 75147

$284,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,054 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 183 Days on market

Built 2020 9,148 sqft lot $139/sqft · 10% above area Est $259k · 10% over ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is in need of a little TLC but is a great open floorplan with split bedrooms and large lot. List price is subject to Lenders Approval

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-382 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.1% in Mabank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#446 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,401/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 279% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,467 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.74%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,024
• List price: $284,900
• Delta: 9.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Willowbend Loop	0.07mi	4/2.0	2,054 (0%)	3mo	$250,000	$122	94
140 Creek Meadow Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,054 (0%)	2mo	$259,999	$127	93
146 Willowbend Loop	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,054 (0%)	10mo	$265,000	$129	86
300 W Mcafee St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (-7%)	0mo	$319,000	$167	63
313 W Alene Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,188 (+6%)	11mo	$248,000	$113	63
103 Lawson Ave	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,215 (+8%)	6mo	$359,999	$163	49
101 Lawson Ave	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,315 (+13%)	1mo	$364,999	$158	45
295 Victory Dr	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-12%)	1mo	$191,990	$106	35
305 Victory Dr	0.70mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-12%)	5mo	$197,496	$109	34
302 Paschal Rd	0.73mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-12%)	3mo	$194,990	$108	34
291 Victory Dr	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-12%)	5mo	$197,496	$109	32
308 Paschal Rd	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-12%)	7mo	$229,990	$127	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $143,765
• Equity at exit: $256,660

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.95×
• Total profit: $474,364
• Equity at exit: $553,498

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75147

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$665 /mo · $7,986/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,884

Max offer price $217,467

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-220	-5% $-301	+0% $-382	+5% $-462	+10% $-543
Rent	-10% $-571	-5% $-477	+0% $-382	+5% $-287	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-238	-0.5pp $-309	base $-382	+0.5pp $-456	+1.0pp $-531

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Spring Crest St Mabank, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1750	$2,598	$1.48	0d	1	0.05mi
414 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,564	$1.11	45d	1	1.11mi
425 Shorty St Mabank, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$1,614	$0.90	45d	1	1.17mi
427 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,664	$1.06	45d	1	1.17mi
430 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,614	$1.03	45d	1	1.17mi
429 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,499	$1.07	45d	1	1.18mi
433 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,664	$1.06	45d	1	1.20mi
471 Bobbie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,664	$1.06	45d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $284,900 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $284,900 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $284,900 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $284,900 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,900 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $284,900 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $284,900 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $284,900 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,900 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,900 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,900 Active 163 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,900 Active 162 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $284,900 Active 161 DOM
18. 2025-12-20
    listed $284,900 Active 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Home is in need of a little TLC but is a great open floorplan with split bedrooms and large lot. List price is subject to Lenders Approval

19. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus
20. 2022-06-29
    soldstatus Closed 890-char remark

    Show marketing remark (890 chars)

    Immaculate and move in ready! This inviting 4-2-2 offers a great floor plan. Large open living, kitchen, and dining areas accented with recessed lighting, arched door ways, and rounded corners. Pretty vinyl wood plank flooring through out. Wonderful eat in kitchen with granite countertops, stainless appliances, and a breakfast bar with seating for four. Separate dining area adjoining the kitchen plus a formal dining space that could also be used as an office or second living area. Split bedroom arrangement with master just off the living room. Master bath offers vanity with double sinks, quartz countertops, and separate shower-tub. Nice size guest bedrooms. The guest bath also features quartz countertops along with a shower tub combo. Great covered patio and a huge fenced back yard. Central location just minutes to schools, shopping, Cedar Creek Lake, and only 1 hour to Dallas.

21. 2022-06-29
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (890 chars)

    Immaculate and move in ready! This inviting 4-2-2 offers a great floor plan. Large open living, kitchen, and dining areas accented with recessed lighting, arched door ways, and rounded corners. Pretty vinyl wood plank flooring through out. Wonderful eat in kitchen with granite countertops, stainless appliances, and a breakfast bar with seating for four. Separate dining area adjoining the kitchen plus a formal dining space that could also be used as an office or second living area. Split bedroom arrangement with master just off the living room. Master bath offers vanity with double sinks, quartz countertops, and separate shower-tub. Nice size guest bedrooms. The guest bath also features quartz countertops along with a shower tub combo. Great covered patio and a huge fenced back yard. Central location just minutes to schools, shopping, Cedar Creek Lake, and only 1 hour to Dallas.

22. 2022-05-20
    status Pending 890-char remark

    Show marketing remark (890 chars)

    Immaculate and move in ready! This inviting 4-2-2 offers a great floor plan. Large open living, kitchen, and dining areas accented with recessed lighting, arched door ways, and rounded corners. Pretty vinyl wood plank flooring through out. Wonderful eat in kitchen with granite countertops, stainless appliances, and a breakfast bar with seating for four. Separate dining area adjoining the kitchen plus a formal dining space that could also be used as an office or second living area. Split bedroom arrangement with master just off the living room. Master bath offers vanity with double sinks, quartz countertops, and separate shower-tub. Nice size guest bedrooms. The guest bath also features quartz countertops along with a shower tub combo. Great covered patio and a huge fenced back yard. Central location just minutes to schools, shopping, Cedar Creek Lake, and only 1 hour to Dallas.

23. 2022-05-17
    historical Active Option Contract 890-char remark

    Show marketing remark (890 chars)

    Immaculate and move in ready! This inviting 4-2-2 offers a great floor plan. Large open living, kitchen, and dining areas accented with recessed lighting, arched door ways, and rounded corners. Pretty vinyl wood plank flooring through out. Wonderful eat in kitchen with granite countertops, stainless appliances, and a breakfast bar with seating for four. Separate dining area adjoining the kitchen plus a formal dining space that could also be used as an office or second living area. Split bedroom arrangement with master just off the living room. Master bath offers vanity with double sinks, quartz countertops, and separate shower-tub. Nice size guest bedrooms. The guest bath also features quartz countertops along with a shower tub combo. Great covered patio and a huge fenced back yard. Central location just minutes to schools, shopping, Cedar Creek Lake, and only 1 hour to Dallas.

24. 2022-05-10
    price $329,000 890-char remark

    Show marketing remark (890 chars)

    Immaculate and move in ready! This inviting 4-2-2 offers a great floor plan. Large open living, kitchen, and dining areas accented with recessed lighting, arched door ways, and rounded corners. Pretty vinyl wood plank flooring through out. Wonderful eat in kitchen with granite countertops, stainless appliances, and a breakfast bar with seating for four. Separate dining area adjoining the kitchen plus a formal dining space that could also be used as an office or second living area. Split bedroom arrangement with master just off the living room. Master bath offers vanity with double sinks, quartz countertops, and separate shower-tub. Nice size guest bedrooms. The guest bath also features quartz countertops along with a shower tub combo. Great covered patio and a huge fenced back yard. Central location just minutes to schools, shopping, Cedar Creek Lake, and only 1 hour to Dallas.

25. 2022-04-14
    listed $335,000 Active 890-char remark

    Show marketing remark (890 chars)

    Immaculate and move in ready! This inviting 4-2-2 offers a great floor plan. Large open living, kitchen, and dining areas accented with recessed lighting, arched door ways, and rounded corners. Pretty vinyl wood plank flooring through out. Wonderful eat in kitchen with granite countertops, stainless appliances, and a breakfast bar with seating for four. Separate dining area adjoining the kitchen plus a formal dining space that could also be used as an office or second living area. Split bedroom arrangement with master just off the living room. Master bath offers vanity with double sinks, quartz countertops, and separate shower-tub. Nice size guest bedrooms. The guest bath also features quartz countertops along with a shower tub combo. Great covered patio and a huge fenced back yard. Central location just minutes to schools, shopping, Cedar Creek Lake, and only 1 hour to Dallas.

26. 2022-04-14
    listed $329,000

    Show marketing remark (890 chars)

    Immaculate and move in ready! This inviting 4-2-2 offers a great floor plan. Large open living, kitchen, and dining areas accented with recessed lighting, arched door ways, and rounded corners. Pretty vinyl wood plank flooring through out. Wonderful eat in kitchen with granite countertops, stainless appliances, and a breakfast bar with seating for four. Separate dining area adjoining the kitchen plus a formal dining space that could also be used as an office or second living area. Split bedroom arrangement with master just off the living room. Master bath offers vanity with double sinks, quartz countertops, and separate shower-tub. Nice size guest bedrooms. The guest bath also features quartz countertops along with a shower tub combo. Great covered patio and a huge fenced back yard. Central location just minutes to schools, shopping, Cedar Creek Lake, and only 1 hour to Dallas.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,986 · $665/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,986 · $665/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$7,986
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$9,459
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,270
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mabank

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #9068

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Van Zandt County · 9,177 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,177
• Household income: $56,940
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.14%
• Current HPI: 254.32
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-20 Listed $284,900 NTREIS
• 2022-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-29 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2022-06-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-05-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-05-17 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-05-10 Price Changed $329,000 NTREIS
• 2022-04-14 Listed $329,000 HCBOR
• 2022-04-14 Listed $335,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+172.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,986 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.