122 Pinewood Dr · Gray, GA 31032

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this incredible opportunity to make this new construction home your own! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is currently under construction, giving buyers the chance to customize finishes within the builder's allowance. Choose your own granite countertops, flooring, paint colors, and cabinets to create the perfect look and feel for your new home, but you'll need to act fast before selections are finalized! This home features a desirable split floor plan, offering privacy for the primary suite while maintaining a functional layout for everyday living. Don't wait, this is your chance to add your personal touch and make this home truly yours before it's complete! * * Interior photos are of similar plan

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Primary suite
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• CUSTOMIZE FINISHES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $250,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $229,830.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($374/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.3% in Gray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#26 in GA, #3,600 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jones County (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #72 of 174 in GA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner Woods Elementary School (math 58% / reading 42%, grade D+, #255 of 1,228 statewide, top 21%, 615 students, 49% FRL); Gray Station Middle School (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 653 students, 45% FRL); Jones County High School (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #210 of 424 statewide, top 50%, 1,626 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 106 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $205,000 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,830
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Pinewood Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,410 (0%)	0mo	$250,000	$177	100
203 Needlecrest Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+3%)	7mo	$235,000	$163	66
344 Autumn Ridge Trl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+1%)	12mo	$235,000	$165	61
232 North St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-12%)	10mo	$106,000	$85	56
208 Autumn Ridge Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+4%)	18mo	$245,000	$167	51
220 Cedarwood Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-14%)	21mo	$189,900	$156	50
167 Cleveland St	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (-5%)	22mo	$100,000	$74	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-24,662
• Equity at exit: $45,505

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-9,331
• Equity at exit: $39,720

Cash invested: $64,352 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31032

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,447/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $229,830

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $111	+0% $31	+5% $-48	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-50	+0% $31	+5% $112	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $90	base $31	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,458
• Closing costs: $6,895
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134 Stone Brooke Dr Gray, GA	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,200	$1.33	45d	1	1.42mi
134 Stone Brooke Dr Gray, GA	3.0	2.0	1652	$1,900	$1.15	15d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-19
   historical Active Under Contract 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   Don't miss this incredible opportunity to make this new construction home your own! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is currently under construction, giving buyers the chance to customize finishes within the builder's allowance. Choose your own granite countertops, flooring, paint colors, and cabinets to create the perfect look and feel for your new home, but you'll need to act fast before selections are finalized! This home features a desirable split floor plan, offering privacy for the primary suite while maintaining a functional layout for everyday living. Don't wait, this is your chance to add your personal touch and make this home truly yours before it's complete! * * Interior photos are of similar plan

3. 2026-03-17
   listed $250,000 Active 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   Don't miss this incredible opportunity to make this new construction home your own! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is currently under construction, giving buyers the chance to customize finishes within the builder's allowance. Choose your own granite countertops, flooring, paint colors, and cabinets to create the perfect look and feel for your new home, but you'll need to act fast before selections are finalized! This home features a desirable split floor plan, offering privacy for the primary suite while maintaining a functional layout for everyday living. Don't wait, this is your chance to add your personal touch and make this home truly yours before it's complete! * * Interior photos are of similar plan

4. 2026-03-17
   listed $250,000 New

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   Don't miss this incredible opportunity to make this new construction home your own! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is currently under construction, giving buyers the chance to customize finishes within the builder's allowance. Choose your own granite countertops, flooring, paint colors, and cabinets to create the perfect look and feel for your new home, but you'll need to act fast before selections are finalized! This home features a desirable split floor plan, offering privacy for the primary suite while maintaining a functional layout for everyday living. Don't wait, this is your chance to add your personal touch and make this home truly yours before it's complete! * * Interior photos are of similar plan

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,874
• − Property taxes: −$3,447
• − Insurance: −$1,149
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$6,686
• Taxable loss: −$3,493
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$838
• After-tax cash flow: $1,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with modern finishes and a desirable split floor plan. Customization options are available for buyers to personalize the home and add value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Custom finishes (granite countertops, flooring, paint colors, cabinets) — Custom finishes allow buyers to personalize the home and add value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers.
• Both Add a home warranty — A home warranty can provide peace of mind for buyers and add value to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Custom finishes (granite countertops, flooring, paint colors, cabinets) — Custom finishes allow buyers to personalize the home and add value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers. ↑
• Both Add a home warranty — A home warranty can provide peace of mind for buyers and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jones County
• NCES district ID: 1303150
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,630
• Composite: 28.84/100
• National rank: #6649
• State rank: #72 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gray

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #3600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gray, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,755

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,682 people
• By 2030: 28,394 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 27,246 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,575 · -10.8%
• By 2075: 21,857 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 17,453 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 18% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.8% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+28.7 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.92%
• Current HPI: 211.7341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-19 Contingent — MGMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $250,000 MGMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $250,000 GAMLS