948 Prestonwood Ln · Keene, TX 76031

$249,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $270k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 948 Prestonwood Ln, Cleburne TX 76031
• Financial info: List price $252,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Ramsey plan); Spec new construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,720

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-812/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Keene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#249 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 335 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $210,126 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
965 Prestonwood Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	3mo	$259,399	$151	95
961 Prestonwood Ln	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	3mo	$261,999	$149	92
989 Prestonwood Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	7mo	$242,499	$141	91
1945 Autumn Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	3mo	$253,399	$147	87
1948 Autumn Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	7mo	$243,849	$142	84
1941 Autumn Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	4mo	$255,849	$145	82
988 Prestonwood Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-12%)	7mo	$244,849	$161	68
985 Prestonwood Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-12%)	6mo	$238,599	$157	68
1002 W 4th St	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,782 (+4%)	7mo	$310,000	$174	66
1949 Autumn Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-12%)	3mo	$243,499	$160	62
1937 Autumn Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-12%)	6mo	$245,849	$162	60
1204 Honeysuckle Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,499 (-13%)	5mo	$319,900	$213	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,790
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-44,425
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76031

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $240,204

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
961 Prestonwood Ln Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$2,245	$1.28	44d	1	0.02mi
27 Blue Star Dr #27 Keene, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$925	$0.87	44d	1	0.94mi
204 Woodlawn Dr Keene, TX	4.0	3.0	1960	$1,950	$0.99	1d	1	1.00mi
804 Alaska St Keene, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,288	$1.07	1d	4	1.14mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,999 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,999 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $249,999 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $252,999 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $252,999 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,999 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $252,999 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $252,999 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $252,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,223
• After-tax cash flow: $411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of functionality and style, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Keene

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #249
• US rank: #5923

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keene, TX
• City population: 29,538
• Population (ZIP): 18,697

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.43%
• Current HPI: 277.598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B