14530 Red Fox Run #212 · Bonita Springs, FL 34110

$425,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,351 sqft · Condo public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1998 $681/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience serenity, privacy, and the best of Naples living in this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath condominium in the gated community of Falling Waters North Preserve. Bathed in natural light, this home features soaring cathedral ceilings that elevate the spacious, light-filled great room, split-bedroom layout, and an airy open-plan design tailored for comfort and style. Your interior is anchored by rich tile and wood flooring, an eat-in kitchen with a breakfast bar, and French doors that open to a shaded screened balcony—perfect for morning coffee or quiet reflection. Under-cabinet soft lighting adds a subtle designer touch to the space. Positioned on the second floor, outs

Key facts

• Gated community
• Eat-in kitchen
• Tranquil pond

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SOARING CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SHADED SCREENED BALCONY
• PRIVATE LANAI
• TRANQUIL POND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No commercial use and no RV allowed (restrictions)
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with professional management; Quarterly condo fee; Amenities include community pool, bike and jog path, streetlights, and underground utilities; HOA covers lawn/land maintenance, management, exterior and interior pest control, recreation facilities, reserves, street maintenance, trash removal, and water; Total annual recurring HOA fees listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage; Paved guest parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise building (1–3); 2-story building; Rear exposure faces south; Zero lot line
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Tile roof; Built in 1998
• Exterior features: Pond and water features with lake frontage; Water display; Arched and sliding windows; Electric shutters; Stucco exterior finish; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop (electric); Range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator/ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Cathedral ceiling; Fire sprinkler system; French doors; High-speed internet available; Laundry tub; Smoke detectors; Split bedroom floor plan; Screened balcony; Breakfast bar and eat-in kitchen area; Dining in living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Washer/Dryer hookup noted (no appliances included)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $425k).
• Recommended offer: $400k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,831/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $207k; list at $425k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-49,857
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-54,599
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,831 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,766/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$681
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,015
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,178

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $757	-5% $636	+0% $516	+5% $396	+10% $276
Rent	-10% $134	-5% $325	+0% $516	+5% $707	+10% $898
Rate	-1.0pp $730	-0.5pp $624	base $516	+0.5pp $406	+1.0pp $294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1025 Tarpon Cove Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$5,500	$4.49	14d	1	0.20mi
817 Carrick Bend Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1660	$5,995	$3.61	14d	1	0.32mi
784 Carrick Bend Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$3,500	$2.31	24d	1	0.33mi
975 Tarpon Cove Dr #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$5,500	$4.10	14d	1	0.34mi
1130 Turtle Creek Blvd Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$2,145	$2.68	14d	22	0.43mi
526 Lake Louise Cir Unit 4-403 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$6,500	$3.74	24d	1	0.48mi
953 Bunker Hill Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	14d	1	0.63mi
1250 Silverstrand Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1848	$5,000	$2.71	24d	1	0.65mi
513 Lake Louise Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,300	$3.67	24d	1	0.70mi
1337 Center Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$4,300	$2.87	24d	1	0.72mi
757 Wiggins Lake Dr #106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$6,000	$4.37	14d	1	0.74mi
757 Wiggins Lake Dr #106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$6,000	$4.37	24d	1	0.74mi
774 Wiggins Lake Dr #106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$6,500	$4.73	24d	1	0.74mi
760 Wiggins Lake Dr #205 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1179	$5,500	$4.66	24d	1	0.75mi
505 Lake Louise Cir #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	24d	1	0.75mi
752 Wiggins Lake Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1402	$2,375	$1.69	21d	1	0.76mi
1390 Sweetwater Cv #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$2,200	$1.72	14d	1	0.79mi
437 Wiggins Lake Ct #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1283	$4,500	$3.51	24d	1	0.80mi
480 Bermuda Cove Way Unit 1-104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1372	$4,250	$3.10	24d	1	0.81mi
651 Wiggins Lake Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1487	$6,500	$4.37	24d	1	0.82mi
1360 Sweetwater Cv #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,500	$4.30	24d	1	0.83mi
1405 Sweetwater Cv #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,000	$4.34	24d	1	0.84mi
1405 Sweetwater Cv #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,000	$4.34	14d	1	0.84mi
1117 Sweetwater Ln #2201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1193	$6,500	$5.45	24d	1	0.86mi
1415 Sweetwater Cv #104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,500	$4.71	24d	1	0.87mi
360 Horse Creek Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1589	$5,250	$3.30	14d	4	0.88mi
1420 Sweetwater Cv #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,000	$3.91	21d	1	0.89mi
1420 Sweetwater Cv #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,000	$3.91	24d	1	0.89mi
1340 Sweetwater Cv #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,000	$3.91	24d	1	0.90mi
298 Emerald Bay Cir Unit K6 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$4,750	$3.95	24d	1	0.91mi
1345 Sweetwater Cv #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$4,800	$3.75	24d	1	0.91mi
1325 Sweetwater Cv #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,000	$4.34	24d	1	0.92mi
340 Horse Creek Dr #304 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1326	$2,950	$2.22	24d	1	0.93mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$5,900	$3.96	24d	1	0.95mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J8 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$4,000	$2.96	24d	1	0.95mi
430 Cove Tower Dr #1202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1519	$7,800	$5.13	24d	1	0.96mi
430 Cove Tower Dr #302 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1623	$6,500	$4.00	24d	1	0.96mi
1296 Grand Canal Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1614	$8,000	$4.96	24d	1	0.97mi
320 Horse Creek Dr #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1326	$5,600	$4.22	24d	1	0.97mi
1214 Sweetwater Ln #2306 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1378	$6,500	$4.72	24d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $681 · $8,172/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $425,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $425,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $425,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $425,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $425,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $425,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-04-13
    listed $425,000 Active
13. 2026-04-03
    historical
14. 2026-01-09
    price $435,000
15. 2025-10-03
    listed $439,999 Active
16. 2025-06-26
    historical
17. 2025-01-21
    listed $449,999 Active
18. 2015-09-18
    soldstatus $207,000
19. 2004-05-12
    soldstatus $195,000
20. 2001-11-19
    soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,766 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,528 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,761/yr (+$147/mo · 99.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$1,766
• − Insurance: −$2,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,638
• − Management: −$4,638
• − HOA: −$8,172
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$333
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$80
• After-tax cash flow: $6,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+165.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $425,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $435,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $439,999 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-01-21 Listed $449,999 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $207,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2001-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,766 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.