1121 Pecan Rdg · Sunrise Shores, TX 75758

$167,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,044 sqft · Manufactured public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2000 $82/sqft · at area comps Est $171k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home, perfectly situated on a spacious half-acre lot. This move-in-ready property has been thoughtfully renovated from top to bottom, offering both comfort and peace of mind. Enjoy a brand-new roof, updated PEX plumbing, and all-new appliances, making everyday living both efficient and worry-free. Inside, the home features freshly painted interiors, stylish new flooring throughout, and fully remodeled bathrooms designed with modern finishes. Step outside to find brand-new front and back decks—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—along with new skirting that adds a clean, finished look to the home’s exterior. The crushed asphalt driveway provides easy access and ample parking. With plenty of outdoor space and high-quality upgrades throughout, this property offers the perfect blend of modern convenience and country charm. Don’t miss your chance to own this beautifully refreshed home!

Key facts

• Updated pex plumbing
• Stylish new flooring
• Brand new roof

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• UPDATED PEX PLUMBING
• ALL NEW APPLIANCES
• FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIORS
• STYLISH NEW FLOORING
• FULLY REMODELED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.1% in Sunrise Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chandler El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 450 students, 74% FRL); Brownsboro J H (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 405 students, 60% FRL); Brownsboro H S (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 757 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,826 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.14%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,196
• List price: $167,900
• Delta: -1.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20561 Joe Paul Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,048 (+0%)	21mo	$120,000	$59	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-14,371
• Equity at exit: $25,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,019
• Equity at exit: $14,517

Cash invested: $47,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75758

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$880
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,056/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,420

Max offer price $167,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $297	-5% $249	+0% $202	+5% $154	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $69	-5% $135	+0% $202	+5% $268	+10% $334
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $244	base $202	+0.5pp $158	+1.0pp $114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,975
• Closing costs: $5,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $167,900 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $167,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $167,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $167,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $167,900 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $167,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $167,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $167,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-04-08
    listed $167,900 Active 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home, perfectly situated on a spacious half-acre lot. This move-in-ready property has been thoughtfully renovated from top to bottom, offering both comfort and peace of mind. Enjoy a brand-new roof, updated PEX plumbing, and all-new appliances, making everyday living both efficient and worry-free. Inside, the home features freshly painted interiors, stylish new flooring throughout, and fully remodeled bathrooms designed with modern finishes. Step outside to find brand-new front and back decks—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—along with new skirting that adds a clean, finished look to the home’s exterior. The crushed asphalt driveway provides easy access and ample parking. With plenty of outdoor space and high-quality upgrades throughout, this property offers the perfect blend of modern convenience and country charm. Don’t miss your chance to own this beautifully refreshed home!

11. 2026-03-12
    price $167,900
12. 2026-01-22
    price $163,900
13. 2026-01-08
    price $164,900
14. 2025-12-31
    price $165,900
15. 2025-12-09
    price $169,900
16. 2025-12-03
    price $177,900
17. 2025-04-04
    soldstatus
18. 2025-03-06
    soldstatus
19. 2025-03-06
    soldstatus
20. 2000-01-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,056 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,073 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,017/yr (+$85/mo · 49.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,405
• − Property taxes: −$2,056
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$4,884
• Taxable loss: −$300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$72
• After-tax cash flow: $2,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sunrise Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,357

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.16%
• Current HPI: 192.0837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $167,900 GTAR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $167,900 GTAR
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $163,900 GTAR
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $164,900 GTAR
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $165,900 GTAR
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $169,900 GTAR
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $177,900 GTAR
• 2025-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,056 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.