4505 Avion Dr · Sanger, TX 76266

$248,903

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Land · 419 Days on market

Built 2025 $156/sqft · 9% below area Est $275k · 9% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the perfect combination of space, comfort and functionality in this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home with a large owner#8217;s suite and ample walk in closets. Discover your new sanctuary today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025
• Listed 419 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.6% in Sanger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#958 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sanger ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #281 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 327 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 419 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $207,566 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 419 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,839
• List price: $248,903
• Delta: -9.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-35,631
• Equity at exit: $37,112

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-38,269
• Equity at exit: $21,521

Cash invested: $69,693 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76266

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,076 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,305
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $929/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $248,903

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $224	+0% $153	+5% $83	+10% $12
Rent	-10% $-11	-5% $71	+0% $153	+5% $235	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $279	-0.5pp $217	base $153	+0.5pp $89	+1.0pp $23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,226
• Closing costs: $7,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4601 Avion Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.5	1589	$1,995	$1.26	12d	1	0.02mi
4001 Avion Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$1,995	$1.07	13d	1	0.14mi
4807 Avion Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1834	$2,450	$1.34	14d	1	0.26mi
4929 Sanger Circle Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.5	1481	$1,795	$1.21	14d	1	0.45mi
5000 Villas Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,800	$1.21	45d	1	0.48mi
5002 Villas Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,800	$1.21	45d	1	0.48mi
5018 Villas Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	3.0	1485	$1,945	$1.31	22d	1	0.49mi
909 N 6th St Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	14d	1	1.26mi
3119 Belz Rd Unit NA Sanger, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$3,100	$1.55	0d	1	1.30mi
3024 Lake Side Dr Sanger, TX	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,245	$1.21	9d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $248,903 Active 419 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $248,903 Active 416 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $248,903 Active 415 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $248,903 Active 414 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $248,903 Active 413 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,903 Active 411 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,903 Active 410 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $248,903 Active 407 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $248,903 Active 406 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $248,903 Active 405 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $248,903 Active 402 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $248,903 Active 401 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $248,903 Active 400 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $248,903 Active 399 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $248,903 Active 398 DOM
16. 2026-01-29
    price $248,903 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    Experience the perfect combination of space, comfort and functionality in this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home with a large owner#8217;s suite and ample walk in closets. Discover your new sanctuary today!

17. 2025-04-29
    listed $303,903 Active 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    Experience the perfect combination of space, comfort and functionality in this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home with a large owner#8217;s suite and ample walk in closets. Discover your new sanctuary today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $929 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,555 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,626/yr (+$302/mo · 390.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,942
• − Property taxes: −$929
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,993
• − Management: −$1,993
• − Depreciation: −$7,241
• Taxable loss: −$2,434
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$584
• After-tax cash flow: $2,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sanger ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839180
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,803
• Composite: 37.76/100
• National rank: #4349
• State rank: #281 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sanger

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #958
• US rank: #16973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanger, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 18,155
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,155
• Household income: $99,425
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 325.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.07%
• Current HPI: 284.2146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $248,903 Zillow
• 2025-04-29 Listed $303,903 Zillow

Property tax history

-27.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $929 · -12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.