16909 Bay Ave · Montverde, FL 34756

$215,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured public records · 215 Days on market

Built 1988 8,280 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your peaceful retreat in the highly sought-after town of Montverde! This beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is perfectly situated on a corner lot, offering comfort, style, and functionality. Step inside to discover an open-concept floor plan featuring a brand-new modern kitchen with quartz countertops, perfect for enjoying everyday living in a bright and integrated space. The updated finishes and refreshed flooring create a fresh, contemporary feel throughout. The spacious primary bedroom includes an en-suite bathroom, while the second bedroom and additional full bathroom provide comfort and privacy for family or guests. Outside, you’ll find a lar

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Modern kitchen
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• WELL MAINTAINED AC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.19 acres (about 0 to less than 1/4 acre); Paved/asphalt roads; Direction faces east
• Financial info: No CDD; Not homesteaded
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt/paved road access
• Utilities: Public water available and connected; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Private mailbox; Storage; Fenced (other)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room and dining room combo; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.2% in Montverde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#598 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $215k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.14%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $70,304
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16919 Sugar Berry Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-15%)	10mo	$60,000	$52	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $42,220
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $135,808
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34756

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,179 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,002/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $1,211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,646

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16300 County Road 455 #401 Montverde, FL	3.0	3.0	1568	$3,750	$2.39	21d	1	0.79mi
17530 County Road 455 Montverde, FL	3.0	2.0	1724	$2,400	$1.39	20d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   status Active
3. 2026-01-30
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-01
   price $215,000
5. 2025-10-08
   price $220,000
6. 2025-09-04
   listed $225,000 Active
7. 2025-05-08
   soldstatus $125,000
8. 2002-05-06
   soldstatus $62,000
9. 1998-12-28
   soldstatus $48,000
10. 1998-01-23
    soldstatus $45,900
11. 1988-02-01
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,002 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$782/yr (+$65/mo · 78.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,002
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,052
• − Management: −$3,052
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $11,671
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,801
• After-tax cash flow: $11,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Montverde

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #598
• US rank: #11453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 4,876
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 4,876
• Household income: $108,500
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 24.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Mexico, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.42%
• Current HPI: 410.9213
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1435.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1998-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1998-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $45,900 Public Records
• 1988-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,002 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.