13937 Conley Rd · Sherwood Shores, TX 73439

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1999 1.13 ac lot Est $161k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Near Lake Texoma – Buncombe Creek Access – Shop, Land & Updates Located just 3.7 miles from Buncombe Creek boat ramp, this 3 bed, 2 bath home offers the ideal setup for a full-time residence, weekend lake house, or investment property near Lake Texoma. Interior features include spacious bedrooms with walk-in closets, a large primary suite with direct access to the laundry room, and recent updates throughout. A metal roof (approx. 2 years old) adds long-term value. The oversized converted garage provides flexible space for a second living area, game room, office, or additional sleeping quarters. Exterior highlights: Large yard with room to build a shop or expand Exis

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Metal roof
• Water well

Tags

• BUNCOMBE CREEK ACCESS
• RECENT UPDATES
• METAL ROOF
• OVERSIZED CONVERTED GARAGE
• FENCED BACKYARD
• WATER WELL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Marina access

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s); No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available (rural); Septic tank
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; Single-story; North-facing; Entry on crawlspace
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Crawlspace foundation with tie-downs; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Shed(s) and workshop; Partial fencing; Boat ramp/lift access to Texoma Lake; Property is less than 5 miles from water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Laminate counters; Electric oven and range connections; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.8% in Sherwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,519 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Kingston (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #70 of 270 in OK (top 26%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $154k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.21%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7367 Shay Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	10mo	$150,000	$103	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $149,655
• Equity at exit: $193,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.89×
• Total profit: $414,940
• Equity at exit: $417,698

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73439

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,335 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,388/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,687

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $215,000 Active
18. 2026-04-17
    historical
19. 2025-10-17
    listed $229,000 Active
20. 2025-10-15
    historical
21. 2025-07-21
    price $250,000
22. 2025-03-24
    price $260,000
23. 2025-02-05
    listed $265,000 Active
24. 2021-12-27
    soldstatus $154,000
25. 2000-10-09
    soldstatus $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,388 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,546/yr (+$212/mo · 183.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,388
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,242
• − Management: −$2,242
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $2,779
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$667
• After-tax cash flow: $5,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingston
• NCES district ID: 4016590
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,655
• Composite: 24.88/100
• National rank: #7585
• State rank: #70 of 270 in OK

Livability — Sherwood Shores

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1519
• US rank: #25941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,011

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 18,038 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 19,513 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 21,283 · +22.3%
• By 2075: 27,884 · +60.2%
• By 2100: 35,435 · +103.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 16% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.4) · D 17.7% · R 81.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -63.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.4 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.96%
• Current HPI: 246.2253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+220.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $215,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-10-17 Listed $229,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $250,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $260,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-02-05 Listed $265,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2021-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,388 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.