586 Bagley St · Lake Orion, MI 48362

$239,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,036 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 7,841 sqft lot Est $231k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This beautifully updated three-bedroom, one-bath ranch home is nestled within walking distance of downtown Lake Orion. Indulge in the charm of downtown Lake Orion, where an array of delightful restaurants, cafes and boutique shops await. Enjoy the close proximity to Paint Creek Trail, Children's Park and Atwater Park as well as beach access to the All Sports Lake Orion and Greens Park within walking distance, perfect for outdoor enthusiats, summer fun and relaxation. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience - easy access to lively community amenities and peaceful living. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautifully renovated ranch home your own. With its unbeatable location and modern updates this home won't last long! Chest Freezer in laundry room is included in sale. A Licensed Michigan Agent must be physcially present at all showings to accompany buyers. No virtual showings allowed. Buyer agent to verify all information (BATVAI) * Seller need occupancy until June 5th *

Key facts

• Modern updates
• Renovated ranch home
• 7,841 sq ft lot

Tags

• RENOVATED RANCH HOME
• MODERN UPDATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.7% in Lake Orion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#77 in MI, #1,679 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $239,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.80%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,028
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
586 Bagley St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,036 (0%)	1mo	$242,500	$234	98
129 N Slater St	0.43mi	3/2.0	984 (-5%)	5mo	$122,500	$124	66
332 Newton Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	906 (-12%)	7mo	$220,000	$243	64
74 Odanah St	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,109 (+7%)	1mo	$244,000	$220	60
733 Luna Ct	0.39mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,128 (+9%)	3mo	$245,000	$217	59
243 Reno St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,068 (+3%)	12mo	$240,000	$225	56
1075 Seabury Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,121 (+8%)	9mo	$225,000	$201	53
30 Beebe St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-3%)	11mo	$265,000	$263	50
420 S Conklin Rd	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,110 (+7%)	13mo	$224,000	$202	46
902 Mcclellan St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,150 (+11%)	13mo	$256,000	$223	44
305 Goldengate St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,172 (+13%)	7mo	$250,000	$213	43
935 Mcclellan St	0.53mi	3/1.0	918 (-11%)	14mo	$205,000	$223	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-14,514
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $19,086
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48362

• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,760 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$442 /mo · $5,305/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,279

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $516	-5% $448	+0% $380	+5% $313	+10% $245
Rent	-10% $162	-5% $271	+0% $380	+5% $489	+10% $599
Rate	-1.0pp $501	-0.5pp $441	base $380	+0.5pp $318	+1.0pp $255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
733 Luna Ct Lake Orion, MI	3.0	1.5	1177	$2,695	$2.29	20d	1	0.40mi
120 S Broadway St Lake Orion, MI	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,950	$2.77	15d	1	0.46mi
442 Mystic Cove Ln Lake Orion, MI	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1989	$5,350	$2.69	0d	4	0.48mi
711 Kimberly Lake Orion, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	985	$1,149	$1.17	0d	6	0.77mi
784 Porteous Dr Lake Orion, MI	2.0	1.0	875	$1,600	$1.83	44d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending 1033-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1033 chars)

   Welcome home! This beautifully updated three-bedroom, one-bath ranch home is nestled within walking distance of downtown Lake Orion. Indulge in the charm of downtown Lake Orion, where an array of delightful restaurants, cafes and boutique shops await. Enjoy the close proximity to Paint Creek Trail, Children's Park and Atwater Park as well as beach access to the All Sports Lake Orion and Greens Park within walking distance, perfect for outdoor enthusiats, summer fun and relaxation. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience - easy access to lively community amenities and peaceful living. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautifully renovated ranch home your own. With its unbeatable location and modern updates this home won't last long! Chest Freezer in laundry room is included in sale. A Licensed Michigan Agent must be physcially present at all showings to accompany buyers. No virtual showings allowed. Buyer agent to verify all information (BATVAI) * Seller need occupancy until June 5th *

2. 2026-04-17
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1033 chars)

   Welcome home! This beautifully updated three-bedroom, one-bath ranch home is nestled within walking distance of downtown Lake Orion. Indulge in the charm of downtown Lake Orion, where an array of delightful restaurants, cafes and boutique shops await. Enjoy the close proximity to Paint Creek Trail, Children's Park and Atwater Park as well as beach access to the All Sports Lake Orion and Greens Park within walking distance, perfect for outdoor enthusiats, summer fun and relaxation. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience - easy access to lively community amenities and peaceful living. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautifully renovated ranch home your own. With its unbeatable location and modern updates this home won't last long! Chest Freezer in laundry room is included in sale. A Licensed Michigan Agent must be physcially present at all showings to accompany buyers. No virtual showings allowed. Buyer agent to verify all information (BATVAI) * Seller need occupancy until June 5th *

3. 2026-04-12
   listed $239,900 Active 1033-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1033 chars)

   Welcome home! This beautifully updated three-bedroom, one-bath ranch home is nestled within walking distance of downtown Lake Orion. Indulge in the charm of downtown Lake Orion, where an array of delightful restaurants, cafes and boutique shops await. Enjoy the close proximity to Paint Creek Trail, Children's Park and Atwater Park as well as beach access to the All Sports Lake Orion and Greens Park within walking distance, perfect for outdoor enthusiats, summer fun and relaxation. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience - easy access to lively community amenities and peaceful living. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautifully renovated ranch home your own. With its unbeatable location and modern updates this home won't last long! Chest Freezer in laundry room is included in sale. A Licensed Michigan Agent must be physcially present at all showings to accompany buyers. No virtual showings allowed. Buyer agent to verify all information (BATVAI) * Seller need occupancy until June 5th *

4. 2026-04-12
   listed $239,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (1033 chars)

   Welcome home! This beautifully updated three-bedroom, one-bath ranch home is nestled within walking distance of downtown Lake Orion. Indulge in the charm of downtown Lake Orion, where an array of delightful restaurants, cafes and boutique shops await. Enjoy the close proximity to Paint Creek Trail, Children's Park and Atwater Park as well as beach access to the All Sports Lake Orion and Greens Park within walking distance, perfect for outdoor enthusiats, summer fun and relaxation. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience - easy access to lively community amenities and peaceful living. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautifully renovated ranch home your own. With its unbeatable location and modern updates this home won't last long! Chest Freezer in laundry room is included in sale. A Licensed Michigan Agent must be physcially present at all showings to accompany buyers. No virtual showings allowed. Buyer agent to verify all information (BATVAI) * Seller need occupancy until June 5th *

5. 2024-05-31
   soldstatus $220,000
6. 2024-05-23
   soldstatus $220,000 Sold 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Cute and cozy Ranch style home in the Village of Lake Orion. Lots of fresh paint and some carpeting. Newer roof and siding. Within walking distance to elementary school and the beach on all sports Lake Orion. Kitchen appliances are included. Only i block from a small park for kids. Furnace and central air are newer as well. Yard can be fenced to help with kids or pets. City water, sewer and natural gas. Great home for seniors with only a couple short steps to get into the home. Also perfect home for a starter home for a small family.

7. 2024-05-23
   soldstatus $220,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Cute and cozy Ranch style home in the Village of Lake Orion. Lots of fresh paint and some carpeting. Newer roof and siding. Within walking distance to elementary school and the beach on all sports Lake Orion. Kitchen appliances are included. Only i block from a small park for kids. Furnace and central air are newer as well. Yard can be fenced to help with kids or pets. City water, sewer and natural gas. Great home for seniors with only a couple short steps to get into the home. Also perfect home for a starter home for a small family.

8. 2024-05-06
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Cute and cozy Ranch style home in the Village of Lake Orion. Lots of fresh paint and some carpeting. Newer roof and siding. Within walking distance to elementary school and the beach on all sports Lake Orion. Kitchen appliances are included. Only i block from a small park for kids. Furnace and central air are newer as well. Yard can be fenced to help with kids or pets. City water, sewer and natural gas. Great home for seniors with only a couple short steps to get into the home. Also perfect home for a starter home for a small family.

9. 2024-05-06
   status Pending 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Cute and cozy Ranch style home in the Village of Lake Orion. Lots of fresh paint and some carpeting. Newer roof and siding. Within walking distance to elementary school and the beach on all sports Lake Orion. Kitchen appliances are included. Only i block from a small park for kids. Furnace and central air are newer as well. Yard can be fenced to help with kids or pets. City water, sewer and natural gas. Great home for seniors with only a couple short steps to get into the home. Also perfect home for a starter home for a small family.

10. 2024-05-03
    listed $199,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Cute and cozy Ranch style home in the Village of Lake Orion. Lots of fresh paint and some carpeting. Newer roof and siding. Within walking distance to elementary school and the beach on all sports Lake Orion. Kitchen appliances are included. Only i block from a small park for kids. Furnace and central air are newer as well. Yard can be fenced to help with kids or pets. City water, sewer and natural gas. Great home for seniors with only a couple short steps to get into the home. Also perfect home for a starter home for a small family.

11. 2024-05-03
    listed $199,900 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Cute and cozy Ranch style home in the Village of Lake Orion. Lots of fresh paint and some carpeting. Newer roof and siding. Within walking distance to elementary school and the beach on all sports Lake Orion. Kitchen appliances are included. Only i block from a small park for kids. Furnace and central air are newer as well. Yard can be fenced to help with kids or pets. City water, sewer and natural gas. Great home for seniors with only a couple short steps to get into the home. Also perfect home for a starter home for a small family.

12. 2024-05-01
    historical $199,900

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Cute and cozy Ranch style home in the Village of Lake Orion. Lots of fresh paint and some carpeting. Newer roof and siding. Within walking distance to elementary school and the beach on all sports Lake Orion. Kitchen appliances are included. Only i block from a small park for kids. Furnace and central air are newer as well. Yard can be fenced to help with kids or pets. City water, sewer and natural gas. Great home for seniors with only a couple short steps to get into the home. Also perfect home for a starter home for a small family.

13. 2024-05-01
    historical $199,900 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Cute and cozy Ranch style home in the Village of Lake Orion. Lots of fresh paint and some carpeting. Newer roof and siding. Within walking distance to elementary school and the beach on all sports Lake Orion. Kitchen appliances are included. Only i block from a small park for kids. Furnace and central air are newer as well. Yard can be fenced to help with kids or pets. City water, sewer and natural gas. Great home for seniors with only a couple short steps to get into the home. Also perfect home for a starter home for a small family.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,305 · $442/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,305 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$5,305
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,650
• − Management: −$2,650
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable income: $901
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$216
• After-tax cash flow: $4,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lake Orion

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #1679

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Orion, MI
• Population (ZIP): 14,746

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.96%
• Current HPI: 182.3653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+20.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-12 Listed $239,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-12 Listed $239,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-23 Sold (MLS) $220,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-23 Sold (MLS) $220,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-05-06 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-06 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-03 Listed $199,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-03 Listed $199,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-05-01 Coming Soon $199,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-01 Coming Soon $199,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,305 · +171.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.