533 County Road 4076 · Merryville, LA 75928

$79,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1998 0.52 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover peaceful river living with this charming 3 bd, 2 ba mobile home situated on 0.519 acres just down the street from the sandy beaches of the Sabine River. Best of all, the property is not located in a flood plain, offering added peace of mind. Featuring a spacious living room with a cozy electric fireplace and a large open kitchen, creating the perfect space to relax or gather with family and friends. The primary suite offers a comfortable retreat with a large bathroom and walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy the outdoors from both the welcoming front porch and the screened-in back porch, ideal for relaxing evenings and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. The property also includes a carport and storage building. If you're looking for a home near the water with room to breathe, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and location just moments from the Sabine River.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Large bathroom
• Electric fireplace

Tags

• NOT LOCATED IN A FLOOD PLAIN
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• LARGE OPEN KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#196 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newton El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 380 students, 82% FRL); Newton Middle (math 30% / reading 33%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 333 students, 79% FRL); Newton H S (math 8% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,190 of 1,632 statewide, top 74%, 255 students, 69% FRL).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.66%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $36,119
• Equity at exit: $35,522

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.13×
• Total profit: $91,305
• Equity at exit: $54,743

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $790/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $649

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $462	-5% $440	+0% $418	+5% $395	+10% $373
Rent	-10% $325	-5% $371	+0% $418	+5% $464	+10% $511
Rate	-1.0pp $458	-0.5pp $438	base $418	+0.5pp $397	+1.0pp $376

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $79,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    price $79,000 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Discover peaceful river living with this charming 3 bd, 2 ba mobile home situated on 0.519 acres just down the street from the sandy beaches of the Sabine River. Best of all, the property is not located in a flood plain, offering added peace of mind. Featuring a spacious living room with a cozy electric fireplace and a large open kitchen, creating the perfect space to relax or gather with family and friends. The primary suite offers a comfortable retreat with a large bathroom and walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy the outdoors from both the welcoming front porch and the screened-in back porch, ideal for relaxing evenings and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. The property also includes a carport and storage building. If you're looking for a home near the water with room to breathe, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and location just moments from the Sabine River.

19. 2026-05-18
    price $79,000 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Discover peaceful river living with this charming 3 bd, 2 ba mobile home situated on 0.519 acres just down the street from the sandy beaches of the Sabine River. Best of all, the property is not located in a flood plain, offering added peace of mind. Featuring a spacious living room with a cozy electric fireplace and a large open kitchen, creating the perfect space to relax or gather with family and friends. The primary suite offers a comfortable retreat with a large bathroom and walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy the outdoors from both the welcoming front porch and the screened-in back porch, ideal for relaxing evenings and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. The property also includes a carport and storage building. If you're looking for a home near the water with room to breathe, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and location just moments from the Sabine River.

20. 2026-04-13
    listed $89,000 Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Discover peaceful river living with this charming 3 bd, 2 ba mobile home situated on 0.519 acres just down the street from the sandy beaches of the Sabine River. Best of all, the property is not located in a flood plain, offering added peace of mind. Featuring a spacious living room with a cozy electric fireplace and a large open kitchen, creating the perfect space to relax or gather with family and friends. The primary suite offers a comfortable retreat with a large bathroom and walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy the outdoors from both the welcoming front porch and the screened-in back porch, ideal for relaxing evenings and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. The property also includes a carport and storage building. If you're looking for a home near the water with room to breathe, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and location just moments from the Sabine River.

21. 2026-03-04
    listed $89,000 Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Discover peaceful river living with this charming 3 bd, 2 ba mobile home situated on 0.519 acres just down the street from the sandy beaches of the Sabine River. Best of all, the property is not located in a flood plain, offering added peace of mind. Featuring a spacious living room with a cozy electric fireplace and a large open kitchen, creating the perfect space to relax or gather with family and friends. The primary suite offers a comfortable retreat with a large bathroom and walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy the outdoors from both the welcoming front porch and the screened-in back porch, ideal for relaxing evenings and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. The property also includes a carport and storage building. If you're looking for a home near the water with room to breathe, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and location just moments from the Sabine River.

22. 2004-12-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$790
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,131
• − Management: −$1,131
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $3,968
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$952
• After-tax cash flow: $4,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,557
• Composite: 24.26/100
• National rank: #7719
• State rank: #661 of 826 in TX

Livability — Merryville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #15511

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 936

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 54% White 45%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $79,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $79,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $89,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2004-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $790 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.