122 Abigail St · Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

$284,020

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,777 sqft · Land · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 9,136 sqft lot Garage $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

More Space, More Style, More Included--Your Move-In Ready Home Awaits!

Key facts

• Pickleball court
• Cul-de-sac street
• Covered back patio

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC STREET
• PAINTED BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• PICKLEBALL COURT

🏗️ New construction. The $284,020 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,825.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $284k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($654/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Mont Belvieu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#438 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 84d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,294 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,825
• List price: $284,020
• Delta: -7.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7114 Thomas James Ct	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+4%)	1mo	$307,010	$166	88
6814 Bens Lndg	0.19mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+4%)	2mo	$269,790	$146	81
6718 Camila St	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,682 (-5%)	1mo	$319,530	$190	69
14727 Sweet Water Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+4%)	0mo	$285,000	$154	68
6722 Camila St	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,937 (+9%)	1mo	$319,350	$165	63
727 Cindy Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,683 (-5%)	1mo	$365,000	$217	62
411 Walnut Branch Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-4%)	2mo	$287,500	$169	56
407 Turtle Oak Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-8%)	1mo	$287,500	$176	53
6715 Camila St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-21%)	2mo	$264,960	$188	48
122 Comal Dr	1.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,931 (+9%)	2mo	$339,000	$176	44
135 Rio Grande Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,983 (+12%)	1mo	$339,000	$171	42
1102 Spring Branch Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,983 (+12%)	0mo	$435,000	$219	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-45,151
• Equity at exit: $45,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-30,966
• Equity at exit: $26,442

Cash invested: $85,631 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 2 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1127
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,604
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $926/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,384

Max offer price $305,825

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $141	+0% $54	+5% $-32	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-139	-5% $-42	+0% $54	+5% $151	+10% $248
Rate	-1.0pp $208	-0.5pp $132	base $54	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,456
• Closing costs: $9,175
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	184d	1	0.25mi
15214 Harlin Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2139	$2,400	$1.12	121d	1	0.39mi
15114 Diamond Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,671	$1.11	119d	1	0.46mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	142d	1	0.49mi
15218 Arnold Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	83d	1	0.51mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	99d	1	0.64mi
14415 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2428	$2,525	$1.04	45d	1	0.86mi
5914 Golden Cove Rd Cove, TX	4.0	2.5	2326	$2,245	$0.97	5d	1	1.11mi
5914 Treasure Cove Rd Cove, TX	3.0	3.0	2042	$1,645	$0.81	55d	1	1.12mi
5822 Sapphire Lagoon Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,935	$1.45	48d	1	1.20mi
5822 Sapphire Lagoon Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,800	$1.35	9d	1	1.20mi
5823 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,916	$1.36	74d	1	1.23mi
14143 Medina Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,495	$1.19	78d	1	1.24mi
5815 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,886	$1.45	85d	1	1.25mi
5719 Rainbow Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,479	$1.05	10d	1	1.28mi
5727 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$2,036	$1.08	85d	1	1.29mi
7514 Oakmont Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,611	$1.35	115d	1	1.38mi
8411 Hannah Rd Cove, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,236	$0.96	85d	1	1.41mi
8015 Distant Harbor Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,801	$1.27	99d	1	1.43mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$1,945	$0.95	1d	1	1.44mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$1,986	$0.97	21d	1	1.44mi
8003 Crustacean Rd Cove, TX	4.0	2.5	2326	$1,989	$0.86	10d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community poolAnnual association fee of $900

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Southeast-facing
• Construction: New construction, built in 2026Brick and cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioPorchPrivate yardBackyard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the first floor, including the primary bedroom
• Flooring: Plank vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen and family room comboDouble vanityEn-suite bathroomPantryQuartz countertopsSelf-closing cabinet doors and drawersShower-only bathroomWalk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $284,020 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $284,020 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $284,020 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $284,020 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $284,020 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $284,020 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $284,020 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $284,020 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $284,020 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $284,020 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $284,020 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $284,020 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $284,020 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $284,020 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $284,020 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $284,020 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $284,020 Active 6 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $284,020 Active 5 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $284,020 Active 4 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $284,020 Active 3 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $284,020 Active 2 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on marketlisting id $284,020 Active 1 DOM

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    More Space, More Style, More Included--Your Move-In Ready Home Awaits!

23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $284,020 Active 106 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $284,020 Active 105 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $284,020 Active 104 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $284,020 Active 103 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $284,020 Active 102 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $284,020 Active 101 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $284,020 Active 100 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $284,020 Active 99 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    price $284,020 Active 98 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $289,600 Active 98 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $289,600 Active 97 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $289,600 Active 96 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $289,600 Active 95 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $289,600 Active 94 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $289,600 Active 93 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $289,600 Active 92 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $289,600 Active 91 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $289,600 Active 90 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $289,600 Active 89 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $289,600 Active 88 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $289,600 Active 87 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $289,600 Active 86 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $289,600 Active 85 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    status $289,600 Active 84 DOM
47. 2026-09-02
    status $289,600 Pending 84 DOM
48. 2026-08-31
    days on market $289,600 Active 84 DOM
49. 2026-08-29
    days on market $289,600 Active 82 DOM
50. 2026-08-28
    days on market $289,600 Active 81 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $926 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,198 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,272/yr (+$356/mo · 461.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,131
• − Property taxes: −$926
• − Insurance: −$1,529
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,897
• Taxable loss: −$4,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,118
• After-tax cash flow: $1,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,885–$26,655 screening

This single-family home in Cove, TX, is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for minor cosmetic improvements to boost its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Barbers Hill El South B+ TX #246/4,322 Nat'l #5,107/41,679 Middle Barbers Hill Middle South A TX #58/1,662 Nat'l #819/14,009 High Barbers Hill H S B+ TX #95/1,632 Nat'l #1,878/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Mont Belvieu

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

---

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community poolAnnual association fee of $900

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Southeast-facing
• Construction: New construction, built in 2026Brick and cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioPorchPrivate yardBackyard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the first floor, including the primary bedroom
• Flooring: Plank vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen and family room comboDouble vanityEn-suite bathroomPantryQuartz countertopsSelf-closing cabinet doors and drawersShower-only bathroomWalk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-10-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-10-17 Price Changed $284,020 Zillow
• 2026-10-16 Listed $284,020 HARMLS
• 2026-10-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-10-08 Price Changed $284,020 HARMLS
• 2026-08-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-08-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-08-13 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-07-30 Price Changed $289,600 HARMLS
• 2026-07-12 Price Changed $305,600 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Listed $305,570 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $305,570 Zillow