14495 SW 79th Avenue Rd · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · Land · 20 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this brand-new 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located at 14495 Southwest 79 Avenue Road, Ocala, FL 34473. Built in 2025, this move-in-ready property offers a modern open layout with neutral finishes, a spacious backyard, and a 2-car garage. The split floor plan ensures privacy, while energy-efficient features add comfort and value. Nestled in a peaceful and growing area of Ocala, the home is conveniently close to parks, schools, shopping, and golf courses, with quick access to I-75 and just a short drive to downtown Ocala and nearby natural springs. Whether you’re searching for your next residence or a smart investment opportunity, this home combines functionality, style, and l

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Close to schools
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• MODERN OPEN LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• ENERGY EFFICIENT FEATURES
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-75
• CLOSE TO PARKS
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Single family residence (Residential); Zoning: R1; Living area reported by owner (approx. 1,411 sq ft); Total building area reported by owner (approx. 1,973 sq ft)
• HOA & community: Pets allowed; No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Electricity available; Water available; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces southwest; Completed condition
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Concrete road access; Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 125; Lot about 0.23 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($320/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $249k implies a 1605% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,591 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.61%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,718
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-60,216
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,056 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $753/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,022

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
769 Marion Oaks Pass Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	13d	1	0.66mi
7883 SW 138th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,125	$1.14	21d	1	0.81mi
8398 SW 138th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,900	$1.14	21d	1	0.94mi
820 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1747	$1,995	$1.14	21d	1	1.08mi
8427 SW 136th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,095	$1.19	21d	1	1.12mi
6949 SW 152nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,000	$1.50	13d	1	1.16mi
8713 SW 138th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,950	$1.25	21d	1	1.16mi
7011 SW 136th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,300	$1.38	13d	1	1.21mi
13130 SW 78th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1816	$1,900	$1.05	13d	1	1.21mi
8341 SW 135th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1623	$1,600	$0.99	21d	1	1.26mi
14983 SW 65th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,995	$1.92	13d	1	1.27mi
6765 SW 152nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,850	$1.04	13d	1	1.33mi
7060 SW 131st Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	1.33mi
7146 SW 134th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,600	$0.92	21d	1	1.35mi
13215 SW 77th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,800	$1.37	13d	1	1.35mi
7052 SW 131st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1718	$1,550	$0.90	21d	1	1.37mi
8070 SW 131st Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$2,400	$1.46	13d	1	1.38mi
746 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	21d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $249,000 Active
3. 2026-03-09
   historical
4. 2025-12-02
   price $269,000
5. 2025-09-11
   listed $277,000 Active
6. 2003-03-21
   soldstatus $14,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $753 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,067 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,314/yr (+$109/mo · 174.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone A · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$753
• − Insurance: −$2,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,974
• − Management: −$1,974
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$3,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$952
• After-tax cash flow: $1,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1605.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Listed $277,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $14,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $753 · +162.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.